G'day John,
I'm no expert on the sun's cycles but I obtained a copy of a research paper and another one was published about the same time that both concluded that the sun was about to go very quiet for 50 years or so.
I think the October date was a bit like predicting tides. It isn't difficult to do, if you have enough information concerning the cycles.
As to what happens after the 12 October, my guess is ... nothing! The magnetic field fluctuation apparently affects the earth's climate but my guess is there would be a considerable delay. It would take a little while for the effect to actually produce results. But the study did point out that the results were fairly fast after the change in the magnetic field, in he region of a few months to less than three years, if I'm reading it right.
And as to "irrefutable", I liked the comment but I would use the word "reasonable" rather than irrefutable. Pretty much no theory ever gets to the level of irrefutable but right now, my comment on global warming is I have not seen any reasonable proof, especially in relation to temperatures.
Regards
Richard
