This is a scientific ?Report? (I think)
?at least it?s a quasi- report
?shows some history of Gray. Guess Trenberth is familiar w/ and recites stuff based on Gray.
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It is now well-accepted that El Ni?o reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. Gray (1984) uses physical processes that accompany El Ni?o to describe reduced hurricane activity. Gray (1984) also finds that of the 54 major hurricanes striking the United States coast during 1900-83, only four occurred during the 16 El Ni?o years in contrast to 50 making landfall during the 68 non-El Ni?o years. This is a rate of 0.25 major hurricanes per year during El Ni?o events and 0.74 during non-El Ni?o years, almost a three to one ratio. Richards and O'Brien (1996) showed that the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast during El Ni?o is 21%, while the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during neutral conditions is 46%. However, the data and methodology used in Richards and O'Brien (1996) work are limited.
We also examine the opposite extreme of El Ni?o, which is known as El Viejo (Cold Phase or La Ni?a).
We reanalyze the frequency of hurricanes making landfall in the United States from 1900-1997 for the phases of the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Corrected U.S. hurricane data are used, and tropical storms are not considered in this study. The reanalysis shows that during an El Ni?o year, the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. is 28%. The reanalysis further determines that the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during the other two phases is larger: 48% during neutral years and 66% during El Viejo. Also, we determine the range of these strike probabilities for El Ni?o and El Viejo. Strike probabilities of major U.S. hurricanes during each ENSO phase are also considered.
V. Conclusions
Here we quantitatively relate the impacts of warm (and cold) sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to the number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States. Whether or not an El Ni?o event is identified during the early summer, as it was in 1997, the potential for a major outbreak of U.S. hurricanes in an El Ni?o year is significantly decreased. The chance of a major U.S. hurricane is reduced as well.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/elnino/index.html *
Looks like there is quite a connection. Guess that?d be enough to ?overwhelm? the ?7% increase? caused by man.
???
~Samwik
