And I thought this only happend at Science A Go Go

one of a handful that disagree?...gimme a break

how's that for a little press *unbiased objectivity* (oops, i mean biased subjectivity :-)

sold his soul to the devil is pretty strong, but the point is well taken...and has been well made here many times :-)

of course, that's my bias...but as i've said many times before and will say many times to come...there is no such thing as an objective scientist (but it sure does make a great oxymoron :-)

he's not a credible scientist?...hmm there we go...how familiar does that sound

he used to be a great scientist, but not any more...

because now he disagrees with me/we/the ruling majority/the self-proclaimed authority

hoooooooououeeee...i likes it, boys...c'mon lets git ready to ruuuuuuuummbllle :-)

thanx, twosheds...that's a gem

Scientists can be a feisty lot. I recall seeing an interview with a researcher who was looking into whether nanobacteria might or might not exist. He said he got pelted with food and shouted down when he presented his paper!

Natural climate variability? will sometimes overshadow global warming's influence on hurricanes, Trenberth said.
"Global warming is still there," he said. "But this year, natural variability, especially El Ni?o, overwhelmed the contribution from global warming."

For the sake of this question, I read this as Trenberth meaning anthropogenic warming when he says ?global warming.?

Given that; I read this as saying natural variability is roughly equivalent (same order of magnitude, no direction implied) to anthropogenic warming. This summary, one year ?natura? wins out; and the next year, ?anthros? wins out, is the basis of my reasoning here.

I realize this is limited by his reference to hurricanes (though I didn?t know of any direct connection between a Pacific temperature variation and Atlantic hurricane genesis). Does El Ni?o change air pressure patterns over the US so as to discourage hurricanes? Is there a well known connection between El Ni?o and hurricanes?

Anyway, a logically equivalent phrase to Trenberth's quote should be: El Ni?o overwhelmed man?s influence on hurricanes.

It doesn?t seem as if man has much influence on hurricanes if it can be overwhelmed like this.

Am I reading too much into this??

Thanks,
~samwik

No comments (from above) to:
Anyway, a logically equivalent phrase to Trenberth's quote should be: El Ni?o overwhelmed man?s influence on hurricanes.

It doesn?t seem as if man has much influence on hurricanes if it can be overwhelmed like this.

computer about to fail again, I only get 5-10 minutes at a time.
~Sam

you're absolutely right, sam

it's utterly juvenile to suggest that we're in the midst of such a dire situ and yet the natural trends can make it a zero sum effect

that's really the point of the whole debate...

the sky ain't fallin'...it ain't broke...don't try to fix it :-)

and yeah, double entendre [sic, lit] fully intended :-)

This is a scientific ?Report? (I think)
?at least it?s a quasi- report
?shows some history of Gray. Guess Trenberth is familiar w/ and recites stuff based on Gray.
*
It is now well-accepted that El Ni?o reduces hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin. Gray (1984) uses physical processes that accompany El Ni?o to describe reduced hurricane activity. Gray (1984) also finds that of the 54 major hurricanes striking the United States coast during 1900-83, only four occurred during the 16 El Ni?o years in contrast to 50 making landfall during the 68 non-El Ni?o years. This is a rate of 0.25 major hurricanes per year during El Ni?o events and 0.74 during non-El Ni?o years, almost a three to one ratio. Richards and O'Brien (1996) showed that the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast during El Ni?o is 21%, while the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during neutral conditions is 46%. However, the data and methodology used in Richards and O'Brien (1996) work are limited.
We also examine the opposite extreme of El Ni?o, which is known as El Viejo (Cold Phase or La Ni?a).

We reanalyze the frequency of hurricanes making landfall in the United States from 1900-1997 for the phases of the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Corrected U.S. hurricane data are used, and tropical storms are not considered in this study. The reanalysis shows that during an El Ni?o year, the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. is 28%. The reanalysis further determines that the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during the other two phases is larger: 48% during neutral years and 66% during El Viejo. Also, we determine the range of these strike probabilities for El Ni?o and El Viejo. Strike probabilities of major U.S. hurricanes during each ENSO phase are also considered.
V. Conclusions
Here we quantitatively relate the impacts of warm (and cold) sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to the number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States. Whether or not an El Ni?o event is identified during the early summer, as it was in 1997, the potential for a major outbreak of U.S. hurricanes in an El Ni?o year is significantly decreased. The chance of a major U.S. hurricane is reduced as well.


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/elnino/index.html

*
Looks like there is quite a connection. Guess that?d be enough to ?overwhelm? the ?7% increase? caused by man.

???
~Samwik

Okay, I'll try arguing the other side of this real "Sci Report."

Since there is such a large influence on hurricanes caused remotely by El Nino, then why aren't hurricanes just as anthropically influenced?

???
~samwik

I'm disappointed - I opened this thread hoping to see something like Gary Larson's "The Far Side" Cartoon.

An odd connection you make here with the Far Side.
This thread is about the spat between Gray and Trenberth (CSU & CU respectively), just like the ongoing rivalry between CU (Boulder, CO) & CSU (Ft.Collins, CO).

From what I can tell, Gary Larson was on the CSU side:

Author Larson, Gary (Gary Eugene)
Title Aquatic and wetland vascular plants of the northern Great Plains [microform] / Gary E. Larson.
Publisher Fort Collins, Colo. : U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, [1993]

...and...

Proceedings : Conference On Science In The National Parks : Volume 6 : Fisheries And Coastal Wetlands Research : July 13-18, 1986, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Conference on Science in the National Parks (4th : 1986 : Fort Collins, Colo.)
[Hancock, Mich.?] : George Wright Society and the U.S. National Park Service, [1990]
184 p. : ill., maps ; 23 cm.
Other author: Larson, Gary. & Soukup, Michael.
Other corporate author: George Wright Society.

Weird huh?

~samwik