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Vacation is Over... an open letter from Michael Moore to George W. Bush

Quote:
Friday, September 2nd, 2005

Dear Mr. Bush:

Any idea where all our helicopters are? It's Day 5 of Hurricane Katrina and
thousands remain stranded in New Orleans and need to be airlifted. Where on earth
could you have misplaced all our military choppers? Do you need help finding them? I
once lost my car in a Sears parking lot. Man, was that a drag.

Also, any idea where all our national guard soldiers are? We could really use them
right now for the type of thing they signed up to do like helping with national
disasters. How come they weren't there to begin with?

Last Thursday I was in south Florida and sat outside while the eye of Hurricane
Katrina passed over my head. It was only a Category 1 then but it was pretty nasty.
Eleven people died and, as of today, there were still homes without power. That
night the weatherman said this storm was on its way to New Orleans. That was
Thursday! Did anybody tell you? I know you didn't want to interrupt your vacation
and I know how you don't like to get bad news. Plus, you had fundraisers to go to
and mothers of dead soldiers to ignore and smear. You sure showed her!

I especially like how, the day after the hurricane, instead of flying to Louisiana,
you flew to San Diego to party with your business peeps. Don't let people criticize
you for this -- after all, the hurricane was over and what the heck could you do,
put your finger in the dike?

And don't listen to those who, in the coming days, will reveal how you specifically
reduced the Army Corps of Engineers' budget for New Orleans this summer for the
third year in a row. You just tell them that even if you hadn't cut the money to fix
those levees, there weren't going to be any Army engineers to fix them anyway
because you had a much more important construction job for them -- BUILDING
DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ!

On Day 3, when you finally left your vacation home, I have to say I was moved by how
you had your Air Force One pilot descend from the clouds as you flew over New
Orleans so you could catch a quick look of the disaster. Hey, I know you couldn't
stop and grab a bullhorn and stand on some rubble and act like a commander in chief.
Been there done that.

There will be those who will try to politicize this tragedy and try to use it
against you. Just have your people keep pointing that out. Respond to nothing. Even
those pesky scientists who predicted this would happen because the water in the Gulf
of Mexico is getting hotter and hotter making a storm like this inevitable. Ignore
them and all their global warming Chicken Littles. There is nothing unusual about a
hurricane that was so wide it would be like having one F-4 tornado that stretched
from New York to Cleveland.

No, Mr. Bush, you just stay the course. It's not your fault that 30 percent of New
Orleans lives in poverty or that tens of thousands had no transportation to get out
of town. C'mon, they're black! I mean, it's not like this happened to Kennebunkport.
Can you imagine leaving white people on their roofs for five days? Don't make me
laugh! Race has nothing -- NOTHING -- to do with this!

You hang in there, Mr. Bush. Just try to find a few of our Army helicopters and send
them there. Pretend the people of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast are near Tikrit.

Yours,

Michael Moore

P.S. That annoying mother, Cindy Sheehan, is no longer at your ranch. She and dozens
of other relatives of the Iraqi War dead are now driving across the country,
stopping in many cities along the way. Maybe you can catch up with them before they
get to DC on September 21st.

.
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Once again Michael Moore rears his ugly one sided head.

I am in no way a supporter for Bush, but all this finger pointing is rediculous. No one here has been right, there have been to many problems on both sides that have disgusted me.

shooting at helecopters
hijacking a hospital bus full of drugs and help for the needy
shooting at doctors and relief workers
looting PS2 and DVD's
Lack of response to the problem
turning away international help
not dragging people out by thier ears


there are many many more that i could say, however there is not just one person to blame in all this, there are many of them.

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Mike, I guess this means I can't count on your vote in '08.

GW

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It's political but I may as well leave it up and let the steam be blown off here. Just remember the opinions expressed here are the authors' own and in no way reflect or represent Science-a-go-go or its management.

Just keep it clean, folks, otherwise it goes to the bit bucket.

"Amaranth"

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I think it will be good scientific excersice to Analyze Mr. Bush.
This time I think the extent disaster of possible Hurricane was predicted.It was again ignored.
You see what can science or techonology do if it is not utilized or properly properly.
Getting in to Black and White again will be grand step backward in time.

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Perhaps science would be most useful in assessing whether or not to rebuild New Orleans. It doesn't seem a particularly robust place to place a million people. Could the sea walls be beefed up sufficiently to avoid flooding in the future? Would it be better to simply build a new city somewhere else?

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From a purely scientific standpoint New Orleans would never be rebuilt ... at least not at the location where it was originally ... and not in an area guaranteed to be doomed again within 100 or so years.

That said ... science will not prevail.
It will be rebuilt.
And next time even more people will die.
Have clean towels ready for the hypocrites wringing their hands.


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Very interesting all this discussion, but once more,I (personally) see a major issue missing.

New Orleans has been a major "commercial node" for the US, both because of the oil facilities and for its docking capabilities. Which makes it a rather strategic place when it comes to defend a country (US that is).

In the 50's it was first the cold war and defense against a nuclear threat, then there was a rather short period where there was a lack of major threat, from the 90's to 01, followed now by the defense from a terrorist attack. So eversince the
50's, there should have been contingency plans for the case of a catastrophic event on the Gulf Coast, New Orleans included. There have been committees above committees "dealing" with these issues, then they made up the homeland security department (that has already awarded honors for a lifetime of achievement!!!), and so on and so forth. Where are these contingency plans? This is what they have to show up after 50 years and billions of dollars spent?

And one should not forget that the catastrophic situation in New Orleans has developed mostly due to the flooding of the town from the surrounding lakes, and in a lesser extent by the rest of the damage produced by Katrina. Dams or "levees" have been breached (due to the storm, of course)and you don't need to be a genius to realize that these dams could be a very likely a terrorist target (or that they could have been breached in a nuclear attack 20 years ago), and that a terrorist attack on them might very well succeed. So once again, where are the contingencey plans? 5 days response time is not even preposterous, one yet needs to find an appropriate qualification.

So once again, where are the contingency plans that have been developed on over half a century? And worth billions of the taxpayers money?

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well if homeland security takes this long, i guess we are all walking dead men and women ehh? Its not like they didnt have warning about this, FEMA the red cross and others were to close to ground zero to be affective to help anyone out since thier stores of food and medication got wiped out.

Lack of response time, baddly calculated the storms strength. inability to make up ones mind on who to send and how many. mind you in NC we had fort bragg ready to go since monday to help them out and were told to stand down two days later.

This is the worst case of murphies law i have ever seen. ohh and stupidity too i might add.

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Kethrie, if you focus only on one beaurocratic branch there isn't a bigger mistake that you could do. Because the standard answer already vehiculated in the media is that Katrina was "obviously" not a terrorist threat, so it wasn't up to them to respond in time. "Other" agencies are responsible for natural desasters. Which would seem to be a logical answer, very hard to argue against, unless you look at the big picture. In which case such an answer becomes a classic oxymoron. Remember Cesar's words "Divide et impera"? think about them.

The major issue is that we have all been already dead for half a century now, and we didn't even know it! And what is worse is that based on something that did not exist (how many politicians have capitalized on the defense and security of the people in various times since the 50's?)we have elected our representatives for generations now! Which is very worrisome, besides sad.

It is not a case of Murphy's laws in action. Murphy's laws apply to causes we don't know about. There was plenty of knowledge about what could happen, but for some reasons (????) it was ignored. The issue is much deeper than the party line that Katrina was a once in a lifetime occurrence (in probabilistic terms). And very few can or would actually see how deep it is, and what its origins are.

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Not much was learned from last year's exercise

Hurricane Pam Exercise Concludes

Quote:
Release Date: July 23, 2004
Release number: R6-04-093



BATON ROUGE, La. -- Hurricane Pam brought sustained winds of 120 mph, up to 20 inches of rain in parts of southeast Louisiana and storm surge that topped levees in the New Orleans area. More than one million residents evacuated and Hurricane Pam destroyed 500,000-600,000 buildings. Emergency officials from 50 parish, state, federal and volunteer organizations faced this scenario during a five-day exercise held this week at the State Emergency Operations Center in Baton Rouge.

The exercise used realistic weather and damage information developed by the National Weather Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the LSU Hurricane Center and other state and federal agencies to help officials develop joint response plans for a catastrophic hurricane in Louisiana.

"We made great progress this week in our preparedness efforts," said Ron Castleman, FEMA Regional Director. "Disaster response teams developed action plans in critical areas such as search and rescue, medical care, sheltering, temporary housing, school restoration and debris management. These plans are essential for quick response to a hurricane but will also help in other emergencies."

"Hurricane planning in Louisiana will continue," said Colonel Michael L. Brown, Deputy Director for Emergency Preparedness, Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness. "Over the next 60 days, we will polish the action plans developed during the Hurricane Pam exercise. We have also determined where to focus our efforts in the future."

A partial summary of action plans follows:

Debris

The debris team estimates that a storm like Hurricane Pam would result in 30 million cubic yards of debris and 237,000 cubic yards of household hazardous waste
The team identified existing landfills that have available storage space and locations of hazardous waste disposal sites. The debris plan also outlines priorities for debris removal.
Sheltering

The interagency shelter group identified the need for about 1,000 shelters for a catastrophic disaster. The shelter team identified 784 shelters and has developed plans for locating the remaining shelters.
In a storm like Hurricane Pam, shelters will likely remain open for 100 days. The group identified the resources necessary to support 1000 shelters for 100 days. They planned for staff augmentation and how to include shelterees in shelter management.
State resources are adequate to operate shelters for the first 3-5 days. The group planned how federal and other resources will replenish supplies at shelters.
Search and Rescue

The search and rescue group developed a transportation plan for getting stranded residents out of harm's way.
Planners identified lead and support agencies for search and rescue and established a command structure that will include four areas with up to 800 searchers.
Medical

The medical care group reviewed and enhanced existing plans. The group determined how to implement existing immunization plans rapidly for tetanus, influenza and other diseases likely to be present after a major hurricane.
The group determined how to re-supply hospitals around the state that would face heavy patient loads.
The medical action plan includes patient movement details and identifies probable locations, such as state university campuses, where individuals would receive care and then be transported to hospitals, special needs shelters or regular shelters as necessary.
Schools

The school group determined that 13,000-15,000 teachers and administrators would be needed to support affected schools. The group acknowledged the role of local school boards and developed strategies for use by local school officials.
Staffing strategies include the use of displaced teachers, retired teachers, emergency certified teachers and others eligible for emergency certification. Displaced paraprofessionals would also be recruited to fill essential school positions.
The group discussed facility options for increasing student population at undamaged schools and prioritizing repairs to buildings with less damage to assist in normalizing operations
The school plan also calls for placement or development of temporary schools near temporary housing communities built for hurricane victims.
The Hurricane Pam scenario focused on 13 parishes in southeast Louisiana-Ascension, Assumption, Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. James, St. John, St. Tammany Tangipahoa, Terrebonne. Representatives from outside the primary parishes participated since hurricane evacuation and sheltering involve communities throughout the state and into Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas.

On March 1, 2003, FEMA became part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. FEMA's continuing mission within the new department is to lead the effort to prepare the nation for all hazards and effectively manage federal response and recovery efforts following any national incident. FEMA also initiates proactive mitigation activities, trains first responders, and manages the National Flood Insurance Program and the U.S. Fire Administration.

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Pasti: You have missed an important part of what has happened to New Orleans: It is sinking.

And sinking because there is not enough potable water in the vicinity so the good citizens of the area have been pumping out of the aquifer under the city and causing it to subside.

Rebuild the city. Put the people back. And they will continue to sink themselves, and their levies.

I'm not saying don't rebuild the industrial parts. But put the people somewhere else and build a decent public transportation system, for example the Japanese bullet trains, to get them to work.


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Quote:
Originally posted by DA Morgan:

I'm not saying don't rebuild the industrial parts. But put the people somewhere else and build a decent public transportation system, for example the Japanese bullet trains, to get them to work.
But Daniel, that would be like asking people to do something LOGICAL and REASONABLE for a change. That's a pretty extravagant request, for humans. It'll never happen. New Orleans will be rebuilt and the poor will live there in squalor and apathy. Who cares if there's another hurricane? As long as people can live the good life today they will never give any consideration for tomorrow. Expect a rebuilt, sinking city with just as much poverty and filth of all kinds as the old one. Humans do not have a good track record of learning from their mistakes.

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Dan, honestly I fail to see how the sinking of the land has affected in the short term what has happened in New Orleans. Somehow, in my idealistic mind this should have been factored into the contingency plans.

I am not saying that geological conditions are not important in the long range, and I am not saying that the levees couldn't have broken beacuse of ground sinking. I am not sure that drilling for water is the cause, but you are right, the land was sinking.

But then, so what? This is not a peculiar case of such a thing happening. Think of the Netherlands. They have been dealing with similar situations for a few centuries more than the americans have. And sucessfully I might add. And the technology they use nowdays to prevent flooding is really amazing, and maybe surprisingly, also cheap. I mean, I was really impressed.

I was not addressing the rebuilding of the city. You are right, unless something is done about somehow stabilizing the land, rebuilding the city "as before" will only be another useless waste of money. But how can you actually convince the leading morons about this?

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Quote:
Originally posted by Pasti:

New Orleans has been a major "commercial node" for the US, both because of the oil facilities and for its docking capabilities. Which makes it a rather strategic place when it comes to defend a country (US that is).
I never visited New Orleans when I lived in the USA. But I would be rather surprised if it was still regarded as a 'commercial node'for both the building and deployment of the gas and oil rigs, deployed in the Gulf of Mexico.
New Orleans has been getting further away from the sea, year upon year. Due to the huge amount of silt the Mississippi deposits into the bay.
I would have thought Galveston would be the prefered city, for building and sevicing oil rigs?. I deem it very unlikely that N Orleans will ever recover to its recent population level. Its very likely that a number of major chemical companys will relocate. Since the Levees are always liable to be breached should there be an extreme rainfall in the central US.
The city is flooded with a toxic mixture of gas and oil polluted water, disease and moskquitoe infestation will be the norm. How can the city be pumped dry, without electricity? How can the electric supply be connected until the Levees are repaired?
Its a tragedy, a natural unexpected disaster.
Prehaps only 25% of its previous population will return, after two years?
I have always viewed New Orleans as a Jazz and music center rather than a true industrial city?
But President Bush has promised to get the city
back on its feet, what ever it takes. Like him or hate him....he does do his best to keep his promises. The point is, will big business, and the politicians back him up?


.

.
"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.


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Patsi i disagree with your definition of what Murphy's law is.

"Murphy's law is a popular adage in Western culture, which broadly states that things will go wrong in any given situation. It is most commonly formulated as "if anything can go wrong, it will." The law was named after Edward A. Murphy, Jr., a development engineer working for a brief time on rocket sled experiments done by the United States Air Force in 1949."

I would say in this case everything and anything that could go wrong DID go wrong. Poor communication, poor idea on who lived where and how many and if they got out. Bad communication about where the hurricane could possibly go thuse FEMA and other resources got wiped out with new Orleans. Upper level people totally unsure who to ask for help, and if they "should" ask for help from the military and if the President would even allow it. Storm shiffted course. Levies failed.

Strewn liberally through out this whole thing is a rampant use of stupidity as well. People staying to party, the mayor not knowing how many people live in his city. not sending in FREE transportation to get people out. People shooting at rescue helicopters and hi jacking trucks loaded with medical supplies. President not reacting sooner and calling off people that were ready to help.

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Kethrie, Murphy's law is the leading rule, so to speak, in something called fancily "system optimization". Besides its comical aspect, it summarizes a very practical approach to the development and implementation of new designs.

In this framework, it is assumed that by the time you test something, you have "fixed" everything you knew about that could go wrong (or alternatively,you designed it as well asyou could, failure limits and all), and then you test it in over the limits situations. Under such circumstances, if there is anyhing that could go wrong that one didn't account for, then (hopefully) it will go wrong, so you can fix once and for all the flaws of the design. This is how Murphy's law is used in practice, by anyone who can appreiate it at it's true value.

The popular version is what you have quoted, namely the catastrophic version of Murphy's law, which tells you that everything that can go wrong will do so irrespective of everything and anything.

My point is that no one can claim this to be the result of a Murphy law type of occurence, since people already knew what could go wrong, but they just chose not to act to fix things "a priori".
It is that principle that so many hold it dear in their mediocrity:"if it ain't broken, don't fix it." Well, others have and still are paying dearly for this type of trashcan "practical philosophy".

What happened in NO is mainly the result of human stupidity (pardon me, I meant "efficient management") at its "highest". Stupidity that has sunk below anything one could consider as minimal human decency.

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Forward From A Friend:
========================
I found this one very powerful!
I couldn't stop but make this comparison..
inches of rain in new orleans due to hurricane katrina... 18
inches of rain in mumbai (July 27th).... 37.1

population of new orleans... 484,674
population of mumbai.... 12,622,500

deaths in new orleans within 48 hours of katrina...100
deaths in mumbai within 48hours of rain.. 37.

number of people to be evacuated in new orleans... entire city..wohh
number of people evacuated in mumbai...10,000

Cases of shooting and violence in new orleans...Countless
Cases of shooting and violence in mumbai.. NONE

Time taken for US army to reach new orleans... 48hours
Time taken for Indian army and navy to reach mumbai...12hours

status 48hours later...new orleans is still waiting for relief, army and electricty
status 48hours later..mumbai is back on its feet and is business is as usual

USA...world's most developed nation
India...third world country..

==========================================
Strange.

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dkv, what is the point of your post? Or what do you think your friend's point was in forwarding it to you?

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Pasti: The sinking has all taken place in the last one hundred years. How short term do you want to get?

Look at:
http://dels.nas.edu/dr/docs/burkett.pdf

and
http://www.wsgs.uwyo.edu/oilandgas/Subsidence.aspx
"In the United States, ground surface subsidence related to fluid withdrawal has been documented at a number of localities. The best known localities include the San Joaquin Valley in California; Las Vegas, Nevada; New Orleans, Louisiana; and Houston, Texas. The common geological tie between the sites is that all are underlain by saturated, unconsolidated sands and gravels with interbeds and/or overlying beds of saturated clays. Water or oil is being removed (pumped) from the sands and gravels, and effects similar to those in Mexico City have been observed."

Conclusion: The drilling for water has been a major part of the problem when you combine it with the fact that all natural marsh rebuilding has been stopped by human behaviours.


DA Morgan
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