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Arctic Update & Other Surfings:

http://psp.tamu.edu/news-1/first-monthly-arctic-sea-ice-outlook-may-2008.html
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php
The intent is not to issue predictions, but rather to summarize all available information from ongoing observing and modeling efforts to provide the scientific community, stakeholders, and the public the best available information on the evolution of the arctic sea ice cover.
The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook is implemented through close cooperation with the DAMOCLES program and other relevant national and international efforts. Sea Ice Outlook activities are supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/report_may.php
Of the individual responses that included quantitative outlooks, three (3) suggest a return toward the long-term trend of summer sea ice loss; six (6) anticipate the 2008 extent to be close to the 2007 record minimum; five (5) respondents suggest additional ice loss compared to the 2007 minimum. None suggested a return to the historical average (mean 1979–2000 September values) of 7.0 million square kilometers.

DISCLAIMER: This Sea Ice Outlook should not be considered as a formal forecast or prediction for arctic sea ice extent, nor is it intended as a replacement for existing efforts with operational responsibility.
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http://www.nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
June 3, 2008
Arctic sea ice still on track for extreme melt
Arctic sea ice extent has declined through the month of May as summer approaches. Daily ice extents in May continued to be below the long-term average and approached the low levels seen at this time last year. As discussed in our last posting, the spring ice cover is thin. One sign of thin and fairly weak ice is the formation of several polynyas in the ice pack.

polynya:
irregularly shaped areas of persistent open water that are sustained by winds or ocean heat; they often occur near coasts, fast ice, or ice shelves.


fast ice:
ice that is anchored to the shore or ocean bottom, typically over shallow ocean shelves at continental margins; "fast ice" is defined by the fact that it does not move with the winds or currents.

Conditions in context
Although ice extent is slightly greater than this time last year, the average decline rate through the month of May was 8,000 square kilometers per day (3,000 square miles per day) faster than last May. Ice extent as the month closed approached last May’s value.
Average Arctic Ocean surface air temperatures in May were generally higher than normal. While anomalies were modest (+1 to 3 degrees Celsius, +2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) over most of the region, temperatures over the Baffin Bay region were as much as 6 degrees C (11 degrees F) above normal. The atmospheric circulation in May was highly variable. The first half of the month saw strong winds blowing from east to west over the southern Beaufort Sea. This wind pattern probably contributed to polynya formation near Banks Island and along the northwestern coast of Alaska.

atmosphere connection
The more we study the Arctic's shrinking sea ice cover, the more we appreciate the key role of clouds and water vapor. Our colleague, Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, has linked changes in the ice edge northwest of Alaska to variations in springtime cloudiness and in the water vapor content of the lower atmosphere. She has observed an increase in springtime cloud and water vapor over the last three decades that can be clearly linked to retreat of the ice edge.
What is the nature of this link? More clouds act like an umbrella, shading the sea ice surface from the sun's rays, also called solar radiation. At the same time, clouds act like a warm blanket, transferring heat in the form of long-wave radiation from the atmosphere to the ice surface. More water vapor in the atmosphere contributes to the blanket-like effect. Whether the umbrella or blanket effect dominates determines how much radiation is absorbed at the surface, which in turn influences the rate of ice melt. In spring, solar radiation is still relatively weak. Because of this, the blanketing effect of increased clouds and water vapor wins.
In the summer, the situation is reversed. Clear skies allow the strong radiation of the summer sun to reach the surface and melt sea ice. Anticyclone patterns set up these clear summer conditions. We will be watching closely for the possible onset of these conditions in coming months.

The relative lack of thick, resilient multi-year ice in the Arctic discussed in earlier postings finds further support in the latest analysis from the United States National Ice Center (NIC). NIC uses a variety of satellite imagery, expert analysis, and other information to provide information on the amount and quality of sea ice for ships operating in the Arctic. NIC scientist Todd Arbetter suggests that much of the first-year ice is likely to melt by the end of summer, saying that despite the total ice extent appearing normal, the relative amount of multi-year ice going into this summer is very low when compared to climatological averages. NIC has found that the relative fraction of multi-year ice in the central Arctic has plummeted since the mid-1990s, creating an Arctic prone to increased melt in summer. Arbetter said, “This may be a primary reason for record summertime minimums in recent years.”

As mentioned, the thin ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean is showing signs of early breakup, with large polynyas off the coast of Alaska, the Canadian Archipelago, and Baffin Bay. Coastal polynyas are not unusual, at this time of year, but the polynyas we are currently seeing appear larger and more numerous than usual. This is partly because of the thinner, weaker ice cover.
Thorsten Markus at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has noted the size of the North Water polynya at the northern end of Baffin Bay, which typically forms in May. The polynya is much larger than normal, possibly nearing its largest area on record.
Inuit report that sea ice is starting to break up near Baffin Bay much earlier than normal this year. They have observed wide cracks in the ice already forming, according to NSIDC scientist Shari Gearheard, who lives and works in the Baffin Island hamlet of Clyde River.
Polynyas are a source of heat for the atmosphere in spring; in summer, however, they are large absorbers of solar energy. Resultant warm ocean surface waters then eat away at the ice edge, accelerating melt.

NSIDC scientists provide Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis, with partial support from NASA.

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http://psp.tamu.edu/news-1/first-monthly-arctic-sea-ice-outlook-may-2008.html
The Arctic and Antarctic: Two Faces of Climate Change
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http://www.agu.org/contents/sc/ViewCollection.do?collectionCode=ARCTUNDRA1
Biocomplexity of Arctic Tundra Ecosystems
Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 113, NO. G3, 2008
i.e.,
...Significant changes in ecosystem CO2 exchange and vegetation characteristics were observed following multiple additions of nitrogen (N) and factorial additions of N and phosphorus (P) to prostrate dwarf-shrub, herb tundra in Northwest Greenland.
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http://www.ipy.org/index.php?/ipy/detail/ipy_report_may_2008/
...plans, upcoming events....
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http://environment.newscientist.com/arti...ible-depth.html

Arctic volcanoes exploded at 'impossible' depth
18:00 25 June 2008
NewScientist.com news service, Jeff Hecht

The deep ocean continues to surprise – it appears that volcanoes on the Arctic seabed have blown up at depths where such events were thought impossible.
In 1999, the largest-ever swarm of quakes on a mid-ocean ridge was recorded, on the Gakkel Ridge in the east Arctic basin.
To find out what caused it, Robert Reves-Sohn of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, US, and colleagues peeked at the ridge with robot subs and various sensors used to search under pack ice.
They found shattered rock spread over 10 square kilometres, suggesting a series of volcanic explosions.

Journal reference: Nature (DOI: 10.1038/nature07075)


....

http://arcticportal.org/uploads/M0/Kp/M0KpEKAcxV_YmzP-tXgmVQ/A_Global_Warning-CBS-News.pdf
A Global Warning: Aug. 6, 2006; (CBS) [This story originally aired on Feb. 19, 2006.]
...

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/09/28/4180/
Published on Friday, September 28, 2007 by Reuters
Arctic Thaw May Be at ‘Tipping Point’ by Alister Doyle

“I’d say we are reaching a tipping point or are past it for the ice. This is a strong indication that there is an amplifying mechanism here,” said Paal Prestrud of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo.
“But that’s more or less speculation. There isn’t scientific documentation other than the observations,” he said.
Reuters will host a summit of leading newsmakers on Oct 1-3 to review the state of the environment. Speakers will include Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the U.N. Climate Panel and Michael Morris, chief executive of American Electric Power.
“All models seem to underestimate the speed at which the ice is melting,” said Anders Levermann, a Potsdam professor.
“I do not believe that this is alarmist… not all tipping points are irreversible,” he said. And societies can weigh up remote risks, such as planes crashing or nuclear meltdowns.

Hansen said he is seeking more study of causes of the melt, widely blamed on greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels but perhaps slightly stoked by soot from forest fires or industries in Russia and China. Ice darkened by soot melts faster.
“It is a very good lesson, because the ice sheets (on Greenland and Antarctica) have their own tipping points, somewhat harder to get started but far more dangerous for humanity around the globe,” he said.
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http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001363update_on_falsificat.html
Update on Falsification of Climate Predictions March 15, 2008; Posted to Author:
Pielke Jr., R.

"For what it’s worth: I believe AGW is real, based on physical arguments and longer term trends, I suspect we will discover that GCM’s are currently unable to predict shifts in the PDO. The result is the uncertainty intervals on IPCC projections for the short term trend were much too small."
"None of this discussion means that the basic conclusion that greenhouse gases affect the climate system is wrong, or that action to mitigate emissions do not make sense. What it does mean is that we should be concerned about the overselling of climate predictions and the corresponding risks to public credibility and advocacy built upon these predictions."

http://rankexploits.com/musings/
...in reference to:
http://www.scienceagogo.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=26384#Post26384
IPCC 2001 model comparisons
...I think....

...and this also (barely) relates to:
http://www.scienceagogo.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=25271#Post25271
Cause and Effect

...and others ...to be mentioned....

Cheers,