Re: Prevalence of a Recessive Gene


Posted by Uncle Al on Mar 30, 2004 at 11:33
(68.99.179.162)

Re: Prevalence of a Recessive Gene (Kathleen)

It depends on whether the recessive gene has 100% breakthrough when doubled and 0% when not, whether it is sex-linked, whether a double dose is lethal in utero, etc.

For the most general unbiased case, if the probability of having one is X, then the probability of having two is X2.

This can get cute. Consider sterilization of the Grand Banks by Canadian government-subsidized overfishing to maintain yields. If you fish out 90% of the population, is the reproductive potential reduced to 10%? ABSOLUTELY NOT, not if you need a boy fish and a girl fish. Assume equal numbers of the sexes.

With 100% population, reproductive potential is 50%. Boy-boy and girl-girl doesn't cut it. Boy-girl and girl-boy makes babies.

2(X/2)2= (1/2)X2

Now remove 90% of the population,

2[(0.10)(X)/2]2} = (0.005)X2

Take the ratio. If you have 10% of the population remaining you have 1% of the reproductive potential remaining. Since fishing targets reproductive adults not juveniles, Canada effectively destroyed the richest fishing grounds on the planet all the while boasting simple arithmetic to prove it wasn't so. Physical reality cast a dissenting vote.

It works the other way, too. Starting with President Johnson's "Great Society" we have heinously depauperated the non-reproductive economically potent middle class while lavishing every possible boon upon our reproductively profligate economically worthless lower classes.
The result is obvious:

  1. A White family with one kid cannot afford to live on both parent's wages. The kid will never make it through college without racking up $100,000 in debt.

  2. A slum bunny gets a free ride from birth, plus guaranteed admission and full scholarship to college absent any academic credentials.

  3. Senator Kerry mounts his hind legs and screams at the mob, "IF YOU WANT TO LIVE LIKE REPUBLICANS, VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS!"

  4. Grand Banks, redux.

--
Uncle Al
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/qz.pdf
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/eotvos.htm
(Do something naughty to physics)

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