Science a GoGo's Home Page Forums General Discussion General Science Discussion Forum A 6th Major Extinction Event

"We have met the enemy, and they is us." Pogo

Scientists say we are in the midst of a major extinction event, and we are the cause.

http://www.sciencealert.com/it-s-official-we-re-on-the-brink-of-earth-s-sixth-mass-extinction

Will the human race survive this extinction event, or will we be one of the early losers in the survival race?

Well, first off: What does it mean "It's Official"? What organization has the power to make that statement? It is still a matter of opinion. They may be right that we are in the middle of an extinction event, I'm not really going to argue about that.

Now we have to consider exactly what being in the middle of an extinction event means. In the last event dinosaurs lost out and mammals took over. So such an event may just mean a change in emphasis. I don't think that nature cares one way or the other. Past extinction events also included a massive loss in overall number of creatures. This time that isn't really happening, it is just the number of species that are going extinct. So that means there is a slight revision in the definition of 'extinction event'.

So an extinction event is really only important in regard to a given species. Will species A survive. To species A the event is important. Of course up until now no species has been aware that it was going extinct*. We are the first to be able to ask the question "Are we going extinct?" I doubt if we are. There are too many of us who have figured out ways to adapt to such a wide range of habitats that it would really be hard to wipe us all out. We might have a huge population crash, but that wouldn't kill all of us. I doubt if the human population would be reduced by as much as 90%.

*I doubt if the Neanderthals realized they were going extinct. Individual communities may have realized they were dying out, but they wouldn't have known that there weren't others elsewhere.

Bill Gill

I think it require something extreme to reduce our population by as much as 90%, but I suppose a large enough meteor strike could take the lot of us out. Maybe not Ray Mears, though.

I have a feeling the original was "he is us", but I like your version better.

If something happened to reduce the Earth's population by 90%, would the remaining 10% descend into stone age barbarism, or would we be able to retain our pinnacle of technology and be able to regain our lifestyles as modern human beings? Also, what would be the effect if the population of some continent, like Africa, Asia, Australia, etc, were to be wiped off the face of the Earth? Would we descend to squabbling over the remains and end up nuking ourselves to smithereens?

That is pretty much getting into science fiction, but I'll put my little grey cells to work on it and come up with some possibilities.

1. "If something happened to reduce the Earth's population by 90%, would the remaining 10% descend into stone age barbarism, or would we be able to retain our pinnacle of technology and be able to regain our lifestyles as modern human beings?"

I think that would depend on what 10% remained. If it was the remaining hunter/gatherer groups we might sink into stone age barbarism. They are still, to a large extent, in that condition. If a significant population from the developed countries remained there would probably be a sharp drop in technology, but enough would probably remain to let us develop an advanced science/technology relatively easily. We could skip the first 5,000 or 6,000 years of civilization to regain our edge.

2. "Also, what would be the effect if the population of some continent, like Africa, Asia, Australia, etc, were to be wiped off the face of the Earth? Would we descend to squabbling over the remains and end up nuking ourselves to smithereens?"

That one requires a much more science fictional answer. It would depend on which continent it was. If it was Australia, Africa, or South America it would be much less catastrophic. I'm not trying to be chauvinistic, but I don't think they are perceived to be of nearly as much worth to the Northern powers.

If it was Asia I don't think there would be much of anybody left to blow each other to smithereens. Asia would take out not only China but a large part of Russia.

If it was Europe I don't even want to try to figure out what would happen then.

If it was North America then Russia and China might get into it over the rest of the world. In that case it is quite possible that China would win.

Of course all of these scenarios depend on just what it was that caused the destruction. Different causes would bring about vastly different results.

Bill Gill

I'm thinking some large-scale catastrophe, like a huge asteroid or a small planet crashing into Earth and taking out a chunk, as the moon is said to have done. Or the explosion of geothermal masses like the Yellowstone basin or the thing they have over in Asia or Europe that's supposed to be a long-dormant super-volcano. Something that would blot out the sun for a couple of years until the dust settled. Something like that.

Well, an event of that magnitude would have a much more widespread impact than just taking out one continent. An impact that took out for example, Australia would cause havoc throughout the world. The whole world would ring, causing massive earth quakes world wide. This would be accompanied by massive fall out from the ejecta from the impact. This is the sort of disaster that might indeed kill off the human race. Extinctions would occur on a massive scale. However, we are talking about an impact by a planetary scale body, such as the one that is believed to have created the moon. There are no bodies of that size in the inner solar system that could impact the Earth. It might be possible for a body to be deflected into the inner solar system from the far reaches of the solar system, but it unlikely even in that case that it would impact the Earth.

A more credible threat would be a smaller asteroid, something the size of the one that is believed to have caused the extermination of the dinosaurs. It is estimated that that one had a diameter of 10 km. It is possible, although improbable, that we could be hit by one that size. In that case we might have some extreme weather over the entire Earth, but a good sized part of the human population would probably survive. Check out the report on Wikipedia Chicxulub crater.

And for super-volcanoes I think we would have approximately the same problems as for the massive asteroid impact.

Keeping in mind that this is my own personal and not necessarily well informed speculation.

Bill Gill

Your speculation is as good as anyone else's. I wonder if our paranoid government has started stockpiling food and supplies for an elite group to survive such a disaster. I wonder how many people it would take for an elite core group to survive, and how long they would have to stay, probably underground, before they could come out and start to plant crops and restore the Earth. They would need to have livestock and fowl that would be able to breed freely once the atmosphere was settled enough to grow things. I hope they save tractors and farm implements and fuel as well until biofuels could be produced in large enough quantities to power the necessary machinery. It would be a very different world for sure.

I doubt if any governments are stocking up for such a disaster, other than a few paranoid "survivalists". Governments don't really think that far ahead. They would expect to duck and cover and then pop back out to a world that would continue as it was before.

As far as how to set up such a refuge. I would expect that you would need a few hundred people. For reference there have been some estimates that the number of people who first migrated out of Africa on the last try about 60,000 to 70,000 years ago may have consisted of as few as 70 people, if I recall correctly. They of course were emigrating into a well stocked world in which they were well prepared to live. Modern people would need quite a bit of support while we were recovering.

Bill Gill