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#25569 - 04/21/08 07:15 PM Type I civilization: can we make it?
samwik Offline
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Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1163
Loc: Colorado
If we are to continue to survive and evolve as a species, we must strive to control the planetary forces critical for our survival.
According to Michio Kaku, we are only 1 or 2 hundred years away from becoming a Type-1 civilization.
This will not happen unless we start now; otherwise we will go the way of all species that lose their niche.
Michio Kaku: Theoretical Physicist, Bestselling Author, Popularizer of Science
http://www.mkaku.org/

Quote:
Physics of Type I, II, and III Civilizations
Specifically, we can rank civilizations by their energy consumption, using the following principles:

1) The laws of thermodynamics. Even an advanced civilization is bound by the laws of thermodynamics, especially the Second Law, and can hence be ranked by the energy at their disposal.
2) The laws of stable matter. Baryonic matter (e.g. based on protons and neutrons) tends to clump into three large groupings: planets, stars and galaxies. (This is a well-defined by product of stellar and galactic evolution, thermonuclear fusion, etc.) Thus, their energy will also be based on three distinct types, and this places upper limits on their rate of energy consumption.
3) The laws of planetary evolution. Any advanced civilization must grow in energy consumption faster than the frequency of life-threatening catastrophes (e.g. meteor impacts, ice ages, supernovas, etc.). If they grow any slower, they are doomed to extinction. This places mathematical lower limits on the rate of growth of these civilizations.
http://ufo.whipnet.org/xdocs/michio.kaku/index.html

Kaku defines:
A Type 1 civilization as one that is truly a planetary society, who has mastered all forms of terrestrial energy. Their energy output is much greater than ours. It would take at least 3,200 years to reach Type 2.

A Type 2 civilization is a civilization who have an energy output of a small star. They would be so advanced that they could build a sphere around their planet to maximize their energy output.

A Type 3 civilization is so advanced that they have begun colonizing other star systems. Their energy output is massive compared to ours. A civilization this advanced would be able to bend space and time at will. They would probably be capable of interdimensional travel and even time travel.

So where are we here on planet Earth? Well, we are Type 0. We still get our energy from dead plants. Pretty pathetic, if you ask me. I could only imagine what an advanced alien civilizations thinks of us. With our racism, wars, and class struggles we will be luck if we ever get to a Type 1. At the current rate, in my opinion the human race is headed toward extinction.

Originally Posted By: *E. O. Wilson

http://massextinction.tribe.net/thread/452fae79-1d93-43ce-a8a1-e838cddab934
*Scientists estimate that, if habitat-conversion and other destructive human activities continue at their present rates, half the species of plants and animals on earth could be either gone or at least fated for early extinction by the end of the century. The ongoing extinction rate is calculated in the most conservative estimates to be about 100 times above that prevailing before humans appeared on earth, and it is expected to rise to at least 1,000 times greater (or more) in the next few decades. If this rise continues unabated, the cost to humanity--in wealth, environmental security, and quality of life--will be catastrophic.


...and to repeat....

So where are we here on planet Earth? Well, we are Type 0. We still get our energy from dead plants. Pretty pathetic, if you ask me. I could only imagine what an advanced alien civilizations thinks of us. With our racism, wars, and class struggles we will be luck if we ever get to a Type 1. At the current rate, in my opinion the human race is headed toward extinction. -M. Kaku

confused
What we need these days is a new
"Declaration of Interdependence"
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Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#25571 - 04/21/08 07:41 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: samwik]
big fat pig Offline
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Posts: 97
'we are an intelligent species'
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#25572 - 04/21/08 07:43 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: samwik]
redewenur Offline
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Registered: 02/14/07
Posts: 1840
I don't know if one of us is psychic, but we're on the same wavelength. I just read the same article by Michio Kaku, and was about to post something along the same lines!

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#25573 - 04/21/08 08:16 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: redewenur]
samwik Offline
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Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1163
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"It'd be one heck of a fragile bottleneck!"

Elsewhere the discussion seems to focus on the space travel aspect of Kaku's thesis (saving the species by seeding the cosmos); but I think the focus needs to be on achieving that mastery of the planet here, first only as a part of moving off of the planet. Leaving certainly wouldn't be a solution for the vast majority of folks in need of a new habitat.
smile
rede: viva the synergy....
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#25575 - 04/21/08 08:36 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: samwik]
Anonymous
Unregistered


Can we be so sure an advanced civilization does not have racism,
wars, and class struggles?

odin1

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#25579 - 04/21/08 08:51 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: Anonymous]
redewenur Offline
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Registered: 02/14/07
Posts: 1840
They would have proved themselves masters of self-preservation and the perpetuation of there own kind. What that entails is debatable - but the negatives that you cited are seen, even by us, as not conducive to survival.

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#25580 - 04/21/08 08:52 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: Anonymous]
samwik Offline
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Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1163
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: Anon
Can we be so sure an advanced civilization does not have racism,
wars, and class struggles?

odin1


What use are these things to an "advanced civilization?"

What use are these things to any civilization with a meteor hurtling towards it?

I think there will always be room for diversity and competition, but not as major impediments to progress.


Edited by samwik (04/21/08 08:55 PM)
Edit Reason: add quote
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#25585 - 04/21/08 10:31 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: samwik]
redewenur Offline
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Registered: 02/14/07
Posts: 1840
Please excuse this slightly tangential attachment!!!

Suppose the day eventually arrives when a technological civilisation is discovered. Which type would it most probably be?

- Type 0, as ours is right now.

- Type I, as ours will be if we hold things together for another couple of hundred years.

- Type II, which is said to lie more than 3000 years in our future.

- Type III, which could be a 1,000,000 or more years down the road.

Two factors to take into account when answering that are (a) the cosmological time scale, (b) the age of our own technological civilisation.

Let's make two assumptions:

(1) The first planets suitable for the evolution of life were accreted around the first of the second generation stars 10 billion yrs ago

(2) It takes 5 billion years to evolve a technological civilisation.

That allows the possiblity that the civilisation could currently be anything up to 5 billion years old. I think, therefore, that:

(1) The probability of discovering a Type 0 or Type I is very close to zero.

(2) There's a slightly better but still very small chance of finding a Type II.

(3) There's a high probability of a great predominance of Type III (or higher). But they may not be easily detectable. Their activities may be indistinguishable from (other) natural phenomena.

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#25587 - 04/21/08 10:42 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: redewenur]
big fat pig Offline
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Registered: 01/15/08
Posts: 97
why all of this speculation when its highly possible that we'll end up killing each other before reaching 'type 1?'
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#25588 - 04/21/08 10:48 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: big fat pig]
redewenur Offline
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Registered: 02/14/07
Posts: 1840
bfp, I don't think we will. I think we'll overcome the problems. I think there are many signs of that being the way things are going. It's what we want for our offspring. It's what we want for our species. It's what I anticipate. We must make it happen.

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#25589 - 04/21/08 11:44 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: big fat pig]
samwik Offline
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Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1163
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: big fat pig
why all of this speculation when its highly possible that we'll end up killing each other before reaching 'type 1?'

It is hard not to be nihilistic, but...
...if you "believe" in evolution...? cool

I was struck today listening to British P.M. Brown's Speech at the JFK Library (April 18, 2008) "British Prime Minister Gordon Brown continues to focus on the worsening global economy as his U.S. tour comes to a close. In a speech at the John F. Kennedy Library in Boston, P.M. Brown speaks about steps international institutions should take to stabilize financial conditions."
http://www.c-span.org/

Well, I'm not gonna go for exact quotes, but I liked it when he invoked a July 4th, 1962 speech by JFK speaking about the mutual dependence of the world's new intercontinental status (presaging the term globalized). Brown also mentioned MLK speaking of a mutual web of interdependence... that the world must recognize... looking for cooperative interests, rather than competitive interests.

It's a fun speech to watch. As a Brit, in Massachusetts, he does not shy away from historical references, and I think it is he, who coined (if not inspired) that phrase "Declaration of Interdependence," that I used earlier.
smile

I see it as if we, as humanity, are adolescents, deciding whether to stay living at home with mom & pop, or go out and take charge of and manage our own lives.

Michio Kaku seems to think we're pretty close to taking that step across the threshold.
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#25592 - 04/22/08 12:47 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: samwik]
odin1 Offline
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Registered: 04/13/08
Posts: 136
Loc: North Carolina, USA
Do you think a class 3 civilization or 2 for that matter would engage in any type of diplomacy with a class 0 or 1?

odin1
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People will forgive you for anything -but being right !
odin1



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#25595 - 04/22/08 01:08 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: odin1]
samwik Offline
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Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1163
Loc: Colorado
Kaku says no.
Even a (fully developed) Type I civilization would see a Type 0 as we see an ant colony. -his analogy

We may study ants, but we make no diplomatic overtures.
smile

p.s.
Though E. O. Wilson, father of sociobiology, advocates that we live more cooperatively (diplomatically) with ants.
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#25596 - 04/22/08 01:41 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: samwik]
odin1 Offline
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Registered: 04/13/08
Posts: 136
Loc: North Carolina, USA
Then if that were so, would'nt the class 2 or 3 civilization have broken one of the rules? If we were considered as an evolving life force even if were considered no more than ants wouldn't that be a type of class labeling? And remember, if we are no more than ants-would they step on us?

odin1
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People will forgive you for anything -but being right !
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#25597 - 04/22/08 01:50 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: redewenur]
Rallem Offline
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Registered: 09/04/06
Posts: 194
Loc: South Royalton, Vermont
We get our energy from daed plants, but we also use wind, solar, and geothermal power, so why aren't we a type one? Because we don't make more energy than we can consume?

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#25602 - 04/22/08 02:53 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: Rallem]
Think
Unregistered


Originally Posted By: Rallem
We get our energy from daed plants, but we also use wind, solar, and geothermal power, so why aren't we a type one? Because we don't make more energy than we can consume?


Frankly, that is only a small portion of what we need to work on. We may harvest energy from wind, solar power, or even the dams we love so much. There are probably so many more ways to go about getting energy. If you took our fossil fuels away, we'd slowly start breaking down. Really, we've only been a technologic race for around a hundred years, bending sciences and mother Earth almost to our any wish. The thing is, we take more out of the Earth than we give back.

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#25604 - 04/22/08 03:09 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: Anonymous]
big fat pig Offline
Member

Registered: 01/15/08
Posts: 97
"It is hard not to be nihilistic, but...
...if you "believe" in evolution...? "

lol i don't believe it
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#25614 - 04/22/08 06:02 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: big fat pig]
Ellis Offline
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Registered: 01/08/07
Posts: 1490
Loc: Australia
How much of our energy (planet-wise) is produced from non-polluting sources? Not much.

I don't think we are doomed, but I think the way we live now is. Soon the massive populations of China and India are going to want all the comforts we enjoy. Indeed why shouldn't they? All we can offer them is more of the same. Alternatives are available but we do not try to use them. It is also possible that we may have to give up some of our comfort in order to survive.

(Can I say here that a pet hate of mine is people who wander around inside their over-heated houses wearing summer clothes in cold weather! I know it's petty--but wearing a cardigan or jumper before turning on the heating may help the planet a bit!!) Seriously I think it is a symptom of how little we think when we use energy needlessly.

Incidentally wouldn't the superior Class 1 etc civilisations be obliged to render assistance and help to the inferior Class O yobbos? This would be a further mark of their superior-ness-- otherwise morally they would have to be a Class -1 Civilisation. Superiority of the type claimed would imply all areas should be shiny-bright, and that includes morality too.

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#25615 - 04/22/08 07:00 AM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: Ellis]
redewenur Offline
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Registered: 02/14/07
Posts: 1840
Ellis: "Incidentally wouldn't the superior Class 1 etc civilisations be obliged to render assistance and help to the inferior Class O yobbos? This would be a further mark of their superior-ness-- otherwise morally they would have to be a Class -1 Civilisation. Superiority of the type claimed would imply all areas should be shiny-bright, and that includes morality too."

- One would hope so, but the Kardashev scale relates only to technological development based on usable energy. It states nothing about moral or spiritual superiority. While it does seem clear that the more advanced Type would have a remarkable capacity for self-preservation probably expressing itself in a strong morality with regard to their own kind, it may not have any interest in preserving our kind - it may be content to allow evolution to sort the wheat from the chaff.

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#25632 - 04/22/08 10:37 PM Re: Type I civilization: can we make it? [Re: redewenur]
Rallem Offline
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Registered: 09/04/06
Posts: 194
Loc: South Royalton, Vermont
I remember from somewhere where it was said that mankind will not run out of natural resources because as we begin to grow short on one resource for our energy then we simply change to another. It was that way when we burned trees and hunted whales and then switched to crude oil. Of the three trillion gallons of crude oil in this planet we have used up 1 trillion of it so we have two trillion left, but with that said we are already looking for alternative fuels like hydrogen, wind, solar, and geothermal. It may seem like we are taking our time in switching over, but you have to remember that this world is not run by politician or even by military leaders, but rather by business men who if they cannot turn a profit on something will axe the project no matter how much mankind can benefit from it.

I think it was either in the late 19th century or maybe in the early 20th but supposedly Nicola Tesla had found a way to turn the entire world into a battery and everybody on the planet would be able to get all the power they needed for free, but since the business men could not figure out a way to make a profit form it the invention was panned and Nicola Tesla died a pauper.

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