ive had a theory, with little if any evidence of it, that ive had on my mind for some time. Unfortunately, i havent the slightest idea how to test it.

perhaps someone here can give me some idea.

there is strong evidence that the earths magnetic field switches every so many thousand years. there is also evidence that its starting to change now. unfortuntely, there has been no real study, that i can find linking it to anything going on today.

The program on tv warned that one of the problems with the change is that during the time the field is gone, the radiation from the sun can reach the surface of the earth, and this radiation can cause cancer. im wondering since there is evidence that cancer is on the increase, if the van allen belt (which normally deflects the radiation away from us) has been sufficently weaken in some areas to allow an increase in the radiation to seep through, causing the increase in cancer.

the thing that brought this idea to mind is that there is an area in the south pacific where the magnitic field has already reverse, and two parts of that area that is acting like poles, albet not nearly as strong as the real one.

imagine if there is a flux pole near a major city. It would disrupt the van allen belt allowing the radiation to reach the surface when that area is pointed towards the sun, causing cancer to increase in that area.

can someone point to evidence that would refute this or give me some idea of how it might be possible to test it?

I think that is all basically right, but the presumed increase in cancer would be pretty small anyway (~1 in 10,000). Though I wonder if, in areas where a "pole" is formed, the rates might be much higher (1 in 1000). I'm just guessing with these numbers here, but i do recall hearing a pretty small number talked about in relation to this problem.
~Sam

Find something else to worry about dehammer. The change, to date, isn't even close to producing the radiation dose you get from your TV.

how do you know that. has there been studies that show that "poles" are not formed. Im sure that world wide that would be true, but what if you were setting under a pole.

lets say that sam is right there and its a 10 fold increase.

its not much of an increase world wide, but, as an example, say that the pole only exposed an area of 100 square miles.

if its a little populated area, there would not be enough of an increase to be noticed. on the other hand if its a high traffic area, the people would likely be moving about and would then be all over the world when the cancer was caused. again, no one would notice. To the average person, there would be nothing to be concerned with, but to those who got the cancer, it could be devastating.

as the fluxing gets worse so would the cancer.

do you want to keep risking your children and grandchildren. The thing is these could possible be predictable as they would most have a build up period. people would know to stay out of the sun if they were in those areas.

Probably not predictable, but certainly detectable. Most of the earth is very sparcely populated (I think). If a city did get "targeted," there'd be plenty of time to move out of the way. I think we should just make little personal field generators to deflect the incoming radiation. Or maybe tinfoil hats? Seriously though, a city could probably build a field generator to cover the whole area.
~Sam

Dehammer:

While not addressing your query directly ? an analogous situation is already occurring in the Southern Hemisphere. The Ozone Hole that overlays the Antarctic region -

http://www.theozonehole.com/climate.htm

has direct correspondence to the increased rates of melanoma and non melanoma skin cancers in Australia and New Zealand under the influence of ultraviolet radiation:

http://www.ciesin.org/docs/001-535e/001-535e.html

New Zealand and Australia have the highest reported incident rates of melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer rates in the world.

www.nzma.org.nz/news/media-releases/melanoma.pdf

Certainly, any substantive change in the condition of the planet caused by anthropogenic or geo-spatial factors must be a cause for concern for humanity. However, it ultimately remains an evolutionary sprint ? to evolve the knowledge we hold of the Earth and its mantle of life before the Earth and its mantle of life succumb to the effects of our ignorance.

dehammer asks:
"how do you know that."

I read.

how do you read studies that have never been published since they have never been done?

dehammer asks:
"how do you read studies that have never been published since they have never been done?"

Studies you ASSUME have never been done and published you mean don't you?

"The change, to date, isn't even close to producing the radiation dose you get from your TV." -DA
dehammer, I think DA is right (re: to date) here; and I think you're speaking about "what if," in the future. I'm sure that as the field collapses and multiple poles form at various latitudes over the planet, we'll detect them and adjust. Maybe we'll all have to carry a compass around so we can tell we're in danger as it starts wildly spinning. It does seem to me though, that as the field currently (no pun) continues decreasing, that we are all at increasing risk of radiation damage. Maybe a little personal field generator might be a good idea even today. 'xcuse me while I run out to patent this and make a million.

"At best, a pause for thought; at worst, a little tongue in cheek." -Samwik
Thanks,
~Sam

samwick ... you are correct. The operative phrase is "to date" ... and you may be correct as well that dehammer read what he wanted rather than what I wrote.

I find it interesting that the same person who is so convinced global warming is just a natural variation that will self-correct ... when it comes to a pole reversal of which we know substantially less ... is ready to jump of a cliff with respect to something that may not happen for tens-of-thousands or millions of years.

The worst thing a spin doctor can do ... is believe his own spin.

Hi DA; all I said was you two were talking about two different angles.

Anyway, re: "...something that may not happen for tens-of-thousands or millions of years."
I think it's pretty well established that we are already entering a pole reversal. They seem to switch kinda like glaciations too; y'know, sputtering a few times and then finally switching over, as if there is some "tipping point." Also interesting is that again, like glaciations, the sputters and switchs occur on the scale of several years to several decades according to geomagnetic data. Seems as if many cycles in nature are like that. Anyway, the 'sputtering' (multiple, shifting, and wandering poles) hasn't started yet, but if we've started a reversal, sputtering could begin on the order of anytime in the next few centuries.

Also, sorry, but I'm new and it's not clear if you meant me or dehammer re: "...the same person who is so convinced global warming is just a natural variation...."

"Life is God's way of turning light into heat."
~~Samwik

samwik wrote:
"I think it's pretty well established that we are already entering a pole reversal."

Not at all. It is pretty well established that things are happening that we interpret as leading to a pole reversal.

But given that we've never actually experienced one we are even less able to make predictions than we are about earthquakes.

I can say with 99.99999+% certainty the San Andreas fault is heading toward an earthquake. But maybe in 5 seconds and maybe in 5 years.

We don't know enough about pole reversals to know whether it will happen in 5 years or 500,000 years.

Yep, I guess it's not well established. I'll look around on the web.
Also re:"...the same person who is so convinced global warming is just a natural variation...."
Was that me or him?
Good going,
~Sam

first off, im not ready to jump off the clift about it, just wondering if there should be a study to determine if there is any change in the flux patterns. so far as i can tell, no one has ever check to see if there is a change above land. The only change that has ever been detected is the one that is over the ocean and that is because the british navy keeps records of compass readings. that does not happen over land.

secondly, it happens ever 10000 years so in that 10 million year period it will happen 1000 times.


Third, its already happening over the south pacific, which means it could be happening elsewhere.

being curious about weither or not something is happening is not the same thing as being ready to commit suicide about it. Trust me, if i were to kill myself, this would not even be a glimmer of a possiblity of why.

actually, the british navy discovered a pattern of reversed polarity in the magnetic field in the south pacific. (saw this on a news program on tv, so no link) they theorised that there was a paired temporary poles in the area, but the reversal ended before they found them. according to the story, two of the sailors on the ship that found the reversed magnetic field were dianosed with cancer within a year of returning.

obviously hes refering to me.

rock formation containing iron that was in lava during reversals give a lot of data about how it happens. It also shows that it happens ever 10000 years give or take a few hundred. They can say for certainty that the last one was 10000 years ago, give or take a few centuries.

the best data shows that it appearantly takes about 300 to 500 years for a complete reversal. During this time the van allen belt fluxuates a lot, disappears completely, then reappears in the opposite polarity, and fluxuates some more. there is some evidence that most of the mutations in life occur during these reversals.

no one has suggested that it will completely change over in the next year, infact its almost proven to be an impossiblity for that to happen. Unfortuantely, that would be the safest thing for life if it did.

What is know is that there will be a long period of unstablity (century or more), gradually getting worse, then a short period where there is little or no magnetic field stabilty, then it would begin to stablize gradually over a century or so. then there would be a long slow build up to a level that we have not seen in many centuries. then for about 8000 years it would be stable. geological information indicates that the magnetic field has been decreasing for several centuries. The decrease is not enough over a decade to really be noticed, even a lifetime would not be easy to measure, but it is there.

in conclusion what im saying is that the fluxing is already happening, its known to be about to occur. the actual reversal will not happen in any of our lifetimes, even if your holding a newborn on your lap. at the same time the fluxing can and does cause temporary localize reversals in the field. to my undereducated understanding, this means that there are poles there were the reversed magnetic field meets the normal ones. these poles would have little or no protection directly below them, or at least a reduction in it, from solar radiation. this solar radiation is known to cause some types of cancer.

so the question is how would anyone know if there was a reversal areas over land. in some areas it would be detected by air craft having compass heading going crazy, but the aircraft only fly in corridors. I dont know how big the space between corridors are, but i would think that there are places where the reversals could be happening without being detected by them.

no, i mean ones that i have not been able to find online or at a library. If you are better at finding them, please show me the links.

Well, I haven't looked for any links yet, but dehammer, you've pretty much listed all the stuff I was expecting (or hoping) to find. I'm not very experienced with searching, but seem to have had good luck so far. Anyway, I don't know anything about the detection part of it. But your long description of how reversals start, etc. is just what I was trying to say with the sputtering phrase and analogy to glaciations. Maybe flickering would've been better.

I'm hoping that we have some satellite(s) up there that's watching the magnetic field. That should be easy to check.

Thanks!
~~Sam

dehammer wrote:
"no, i mean ones that i have not been able to find online or at a library."

1. Give me the search criteria you are using
2. What you are trying to find
3. What library are you looking in?

I'm inclined to agree with DA:

"Find something else to worry about dehammer."

The increase in cancers is probably caused mainly by the fact more of us are living longer. Therefore statistically more likely to get it.

The subject of magnetic reversals is interesting however. Re. samwik finding information. You can make your Google search title as long and as detailed as you like.

Thanks for the tip, I'll try some different stuff. First though, I'm looking at temp. data and also volcanos.
~Samwik

i used '"earth magnetic field", reversal' to find many links about the reversals, but when i add cancer, i get nothing. It is interesting that different sites list different periods of reversal, from 1000 year to millions of years. another point i dont understand is that some of them say that lower altitude changes more often than higher.

unfortuately they dont show much data on how the fluxutation occur nor do they show any data on if animals get cancer or anything like that. last time the reveral occured was long before anyone knew about cancer.

I also checked at a couple of the local towns 7 libraries, but none of the people there could help me find anything so i call the local university library. Again she was not able to find any studies on the link between the earth magnetic feild reversal and cancer.


from what i have been able to see from the various data, all the studies have been done on lava, sediment, and other ancient geological formation. None have been done to see if there is a current amount of fluxuations going on.

once again, im not so much worried about it, as interested in it.

re: "...but when i add cancer, i get nothing."
Hint, hint!

Hiya dehammer; I think the cancer connection is pretty slim at this point (ala, "to date"). Are there any studies of people who work in Antarctica that might address the connection, or how about airline pilots and attendants. If we start seeing aurora's overhead or down south, then we'll start seeing more research.
~samwik

the fact that you cant find any study on it does not mean its not happening. Im wondering if anyone has thought to check even if its a possiblity.

The reason you can't find anything dehammer is that the studies are of radiation levels ... not cancer. You have jumped thousands of years ahead of reality.

What we know is the radiation levels.
And we know the changes are inconsequential.

You will not find studies on this until there is something to study any more than you will find studies on the incidence of lung disease caused by the eruption of Mt. Rainier (until it does).

But the science related to the issue is published and widely available.

the thing is radiation can cause cancer, that is known. ultraviolet rays are known to cause skin cancer and other forms of radiation also have been know, including x rays which are blocked in part by the van allen belt.

from what i can tell, no one has even questioned if this is a possibility.

i have found articles on the fact that a pole reversal has begun, and that it will not be completed for as much as 300 years, but nothing on any connections (if there are any) between cancer and radiation leakage from a weakened van allen belt.

im just curious if i was over looking things.

as it has been pointed out, there is little danger of it actually happening to the average person. It just makes me wonder is all.

To see if anyone is watching, I did google and ask.com searching for 'geomagnetic observations' and 'Oersted satellite.' Lots of stuff; here's a sample (with an abstract from the last link).

http://www.meteo.be/IAGA_WG_V.1/

http://solarwww.mtk.nao.ac.jp/en/wdc.html#airglow

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2002/2002JA009414.shtml

http://www.antarcticanz.govt.nz/article/3859?

http://gcmd.nasa.gov/records/GCMD_GSIMAGOBS.html

http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/Dynapage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v416/n6881/abs/416620a_fs.html

The 'geodynamo' in the Earth's liquid outer core produces a magnetic field that dominates the large and medium length scales of the magnetic field observed at the Earth's surface. Here we use data from the currently operating Danish Oersted satellite, and from the US Magsat satellite that operated in 1979/80, to identify and interpret variations in the magnetic field over the past 20 years, down to length scales previously inaccessible. Projected down to the surface of the Earth's core, we found these variations to be small below the Pacific Ocean, and large at polar latitudes and in a region centred below southern Africa. The flow pattern at the surface of the core that we calculate to account for these changes is characterized by a westward flow concentrated in retrograde polar vortices and an asymmetric ring where prograde vortices are correlated with highs (and retrograde vortices with lows) in the historical (400-year average) magnetic field. This pattern is analogous to those seen in a large class of numerical dynamo simulations, except for its longitudinal asymmetry. If this asymmetric state was reached often in the past, it might account for several persistent patterns observed in the palaeomagnetic field. We postulate that it might also be a state in which the geodynamo operates before reversing.

Have fun,
~~samwik

thanks. i didnt thing to look for geomagnetic in the search.

Is it "Global warming isn't happening"?

Blacknad.

thats not worth the words to respond to.

Well I call that a response. Eight words.

Dehammer, don't get the wrong idea - I think you're wrong on this issue, but you obviously do your homework and I respect that. Same goes for Richard.

Blacknad.

Regarding the original thought for this thread: Have you given any thought to how magnetic flux might have a connection to clouds?
Ala: Topic- Clouds Come from Deep Space Too
posted October 10, 2006 11:24 erich knight

NEWS from spacecenter.dk

October 4th 2006
"Getting closer to the cosmic connection to climate."
"A team at the Danish National Space Center has discovered how cosmic rays from exploding stars can help to make clouds in the atmosphere. The results support the theory that cosmic rays influence Earth?s climate."

What about solar wind; does it qualify, or are cosmic rays too high-energy to compare? Are cosmic rays affected by the geomagnetic field?

??
~S

interesting thought. I do know that the solar wind (material thrown out during a flare) blocks the cosmic rays from hitting the earth as much. I dont think the earths magnetic field does though. something i read about the space station is that they dont have to worry about the radiation from the sun so much because they are inside the van allen belt, but they do have to worry about the cosmic radiation, which to me means its not affected so much by the van allen belt.

on the other hand, when the van allen belt disappears due to the geomagnetic reversal, it would allow the solar wind to hit the earth. There was a deal on tv about mars. they said it used to have a lot thicker atmosphere, but lost it at about the same time the martian van allen belt disappeared. The magma from asteroid hits that struck the planet after the field disappeared showed that there was no geomagnetic feild at that point, yet ones that are older showed it was fairly strong.