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#30050 04/01/09 02:15 PM
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Early last year I posted that the "wheels would have fallen off" the AGW theory by the end of 2008. I think I was about 4 months too early in my prediction. Recently there have been a number of polls showing an increasing number of people becoming increasingly sceptical. And now in the last few days, a whole rash of articles that tell me the end is nigh ...... its almost over ! Good luck in the future Mr. Gore !

http://www.cato.org/special/climatechange/alternate_version.html

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/chris_ayres/article6011157.ece

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/29/magazine/29Dyson-t.html?_r=2&hp=&pagewanted=all

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech-mainmenu-30/environment/942

http://www.examiner.com/x-6503-Ft-Lauderdale-Science-News-Examiner~y2009m3d31-Climate-change-global-warming-and-all-the-hype

http://deltafarmpress.com/news_archive/robinson-column-0331/

http://www.newsmax.com/brennan/global_warming_UN/2009/03/31/198054.html


Maybe now we can get back to some serious issues.




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Wow! That's amazing! Stay tuned next week when we poll a bunch of non-scientists, including political "think tanks," on whether they accept the laws of physics!

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I choose to follow data from reputable sources , Such as data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) below.
and not the (data?) that some use to allow them to keep their heads in the sand.




http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globtemp.html


Quote:
This graph shows annual mean global temperature anomalies over the period 1880-2001.
The zero line represents the long term mean temperature from 1880-2001, and the red and blue bars are showing annual departures from that mean.

As is evident in the graph, 2001 was second only to 1998 in terms of global temperature, and the trend has been toward increasing temperatures at least since the beginning of the 20th century. Land temperatures have greater anomalies than the ocean, which is to be expected since land heats up and cools down faster than water.


----------------------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------------



Quote:

Is sea level rising?
Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years, which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years.


This does not include the amounts of sea level increase we would be experiencing if we were not dumping 2 cubic miles of water into the oil wells each year , by water injection methods to get the oil out.

it also does not include the amounts of water that is being locked up in resouviors.

or the amounts that are being soaked up into the ground by the additional snowfall meltwater and rainfall.


---------------------------------------------------------------

ANYONE WHO IS INTERESTED IN ACTUAL DATA ON GLOBAL WARMING
CAN FIND THE DATA HERE.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html


Quote:
Maybe now we can get back to some serious issues.


Imrancan , have you ever had a serious thinking spell?


............................................................ (.)


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Quote:
Wow! That's amazing! Stay tuned next week when we poll a bunch of non-scientists, including political "think tanks," on whether they accept the laws of physics!


According to my experience's with the D.O.E. funding programs everything is based on feasibility .

and that feasibility is based on income from taxes.

ie .. If you can make your own energy then that is not feasible.

and they wont fund it.


of course they can use the tech to de-salinate sea water with , as long as its hidden away in the workings.



.


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Originally Posted By: TheFallibleFiend
Wow! That's amazing! Stay tuned next week when we poll a bunch of non-scientists, including political "think tanks," on whether they accept the laws of physics!


http://www.cato.org/special/climatechange/alternate_version.html


Which of these did you think are "non-scientists" .... ? Or were you referrng to Freeman Dyson ?


Presumably you can read ..... although thinking for yourself may be a stretch ....

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Originally Posted By: ImranCan
Early last year I posted that the "wheels would have fallen off" the AGW theory by the end of 2008. I think I was about 4 months too early in my prediction.
http://www.cato.org/special/climatechange/alternate_version.html
"alternate version" of what?

Oh, I get it. It's an April Fool's Joke! Oh--those CATO nuts.... Hahahahaha.
Why is it always CATO, Heartland, or AEI?
hmmm... They couldn't get Pielke to sign--even after basing the petition on his work?
===

Okay, let's take the first name on the list: Syun Akasofu, Ph.D, University Of Alaska
Quote:
He does admit that global warming is occurring, especially in the Arctic, and that this climate change "consists of both natural change and the greenhouse effect."
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Syun_Akasofu

This is cited from his own website's posting of the "TESTIMONY OF DR. SYUN-ICHI AKASOFU BEFORE THE UNITED STATES SENATE COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS HEARING ON THE PROJECTED AND PAST EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A FOCUS ON MARINE AND TERRESTRIAL SYSTEMS"


"The wheels are falling off! The wheels are falling off!" Where have I heard this before? Could this be the answer to Chicken Little?

Maybe not; I prefer to think of it as the power of positive thinking!
Keep it up Imran; I'm glad to see that you're finally citing scientists who acknowledge the "greenhouse effect."


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[quote=samwik
"The wheels are falling off! The wheels are falling off!" Where have I heard this before? Could this be the answer to Chicken Little?[/quote]

Maybe instead of mocking, or nitpicking about what this or that paticular scientist has or hasn't said, or about who has or hasn't signed it, you should elevate your thinking a little. Instead of mocking those who have a different opinion than yourself, why not address the fundamental points (eg. is the alarm overstated ? why have the GCM's failed to explain the last decade ?) The reason you attack the individual is because you can't answer the critcisms.

Try reading it again. Let me paste it in again below for you :

We, the undersigned scientists, maintain that the case for alarm regarding climate change is grossly overstated. Surface temperature changes over the past century have been episodic and modest and there has been no net global warming for over a decade now.1,2 After controlling for population growth and property values, there has been no increase in damages from severe weather-related events.3 The computer models forecasting rapid temperature change abjectly fail to explain recent climate behavior.4 Mr. President, your characterization of the scientific facts regarding climate change and the degree of certainty informing the scientific debate is simply incorrect.


Now on the basis of the fact that INCREASING NUMBERS OF PEOPLE ARE ALSO THINKING LIKE THIS, how are AGW alarmists going to make a case to de-indutrialise civilisation, in some ridiculous attempt to reduce the abundance of a perfectly harmless trace gas ? I am going to enjoy watching them try and I am going to enjoy watching the wheels fall off. (btw, thats a saying for when something goes wrong for you)

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Originally Posted By: ImranCan
(eg. is the alarm overstated ? why have the GCM's failed to explain the last decade ?)

"The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear." BHO
"Mr. President, your characterization of the scientific facts regarding climate change and the degree of certainty informing the scientific debate is simply incorrect." CATO

If Obama had said that the conclusions are beyond dispute and the facts are unequivocal, I could see how many scientists would logically disagree with such an absolute statement. Scientists hate to agree with any absolutes, I think. CATO crafted an interesting sentence to get the scientist with a semantic ploy, but that seems to be their only contribution to this "petition."
Was this petition published anywhere other than their own website?
===

But Obama's statement was meant for the general public. There is a purpose behind alarms. They are to get your attention when you are likely distracted by something else. Alarms are designed to be louder than needed for basic or logical communication.

If we weren't so distracted by profligacy, maybe the logical communication that we are unbalancing a critical climate system would immediately make people realize the folly of their ways; but being distracted, people need something exaggerated--an alarm--to help wake them up from their dream state.

Here's an example: ...speaking about the climate problem....
Originally Posted By: Al Gore
...alongside the potential for some nuclear exchange....

This is the one challenge that could completely end human civilization, and it is rushing at us with such speed and force, it's completely unprecedented. As one strategic analyst in the Pentagon wrote in a landmark study of why Pearl Harbor wasn't prevented: He said, we as human beings have a tendency to confuse the unprecedented with the improbable. If something's never happened before, we tend to think: Well, that's not going to happen. [...]Problem is--the exceptions can kill you.”
from....
Al Gore’s Testimony at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: Hearing on Global Climate Change; Jan. 28, 2009. From questions following the prepared statement.

===

As for the GCMs failure:
I assume you mean how they completely failed to predict the rapid and record-breaking loss of Arctic ice mass.
The GCM's were all off by about 50 years.

As for nitpicking, that's the way science works. We could look at the "signers" of the CATO letter, one-by-one, to see how much weight of authority to give to them. Science is a cooperative effort, so I started with the first name; others are welcome to continue the effort.

As for the "weight of authority," I also looked at the Freeman Dyson article in the NYT. I think they had a very balanced article:
Originally Posted By: NYT
Bio-tech, he writes in his book, “Infinite in All Directions” (1988), “offers us the chance to imitate nature’s speed and flexibility,” and he imagines the furniture and art that people will “grow” for themselves, the pet dinosaurs they will “grow” for their children, along with an idiosyncratic menagerie of genetically engineered cousins of the carbon-eating tree: termites to consume derelict automobiles, a potato capable of flourishing on the dry red surfaces of Mars, a collision-avoiding car.

These ideas attract derision similar to Dyson’s essays on climate change, but he is an undeterred octogenarian futurist. “I don’t think of myself predicting things,” he says. “I’m expressing possibilities. Things that could happen. To a large extent it’s a question of how badly people want them to. The purpose of thinking about the future is not to predict it but to raise people’s hopes.”

Good for him! Maybe he's a bit over the edge, but he's still focused on the future (the distant future, it sounds).

They go on to include:
Originally Posted By: NYT
...purpose of thinking about the future is not to predict it but to raise people’s hopes.”
The Nobel physics laureate Steven Weinberg admires Dyson’s physics — he says he thinks the Nobel committee fleeced him by not awarding his work on quantum electrodynamics with the prize — but Weinberg parts ways with his sensibility: “I have the sense that when consensus is forming like ice hardening on a lake, Dyson will do his best to chip at the ice.”
Whatever else he is, Dyson is the good scientist; he asks the hard questions. He could also be a lonely prophet. Or, as he [Dyson} acknowledges, he could be dead wrong.



p.s. I have some interesting info on the property loss data, but not tonight....

Last edited by samwik; 04/02/09 10:49 AM.

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This is analogous to the idiot creationists with their list of "scientists who reject evolution." It's going to be very convincing to the same crowd of people, i.e. the trolls who don't realize that FOX has the same relation to "news" that Japanese whaling vessels have to "research."


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Originally Posted By: samwik
p.s. I have some interesting info on the property loss data, but not tonight....
...on the next night....

Originally Posted By: CATO
....After controlling for population growth and property values, there has been no increase in damages from severe weather-related events. (3) ....
(3) Pielke, R. A. Jr., et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005: DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-86-10-1481.


Some blog cited this [below] as evidence of the non-existence of climate change, so I went and looked at it.
It does have some points to encourage denialism, but overall I thought it more supported the alarmist point of view.

Note that this study specifically "expanded on" Pielke, the source for the second claim of the CATO "petition."
The CATO claim cites Pielke et al. (2005), but I'm sure Pielke's 2008 paper is heavily based on the 2005 work, if I know Pielke's publications.

So this paper, which "expanded on the Pielke et al. (2008) approach," seems to support Obama's statement over the CATO conjecture.
Quote:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/11n0524t1kg41400/fulltext.pdf
The Impact of Socio-economics and Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Losses in the USA

Abstract: ....However, it is also thought that the rise in losses is caused by increasing frequency of severe cyclones resulting from climate change, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

Introduction:
Our interest focuses on distinguishing between the signal due to socio-economic changes and the signal due to climate-related storm intensity from storm losses. This will help to understand better what is behind the observed increase in economic losses due to tropical cyclones.

We expanded on the Pielke et al. (2008) approach in Schmidt et al. (2008), and noted a positive short-term trend for the period 1971–2005 that can at least be interpreted as a climate variability impact. Based on this, we advanced the premise that, if the losses are affected by natural climate fluctuations, they are also likely to be affected by additional global warming due to anthropogenic climate change.

The regression results can be interpreted as follows:
whereas a 1% increase in capital stock index in the region affected by the storm produces a 0.44% increase in loss, a 1% increase in wind speed produces a 2.8% increase. In other words, storm loss is far more elastic in respect of changes in wind speed than changes in capital stock index.

The 27% increase in the current ‘‘warm phase’’ is therefore well above the long-term average. Whether this is a sign of a change in the long-term trend is uncertain because the increase will be influenced by the further development of the on-going ‘‘warm phase’’.

Conclusion (pt.A):
The results show that, historically, the increase in losses due to socioeconomic changes was approximately three times higher than that due to climate-induced changes.
We therefore regard our results as being an indication only of the extent to which socio-economic and climate changes account for the increase in losses. Both studies confirm the consensus reached in May 2006 at the international workshop in Hohenkammer attended by leading experts on climate change and natural catastrophe losses (see Table 6).

Table 6: Consensus and recommendations of the international workshop held at Hohenkammer in Germany on 25 and 26 May 2006 and attended by leading experts on climate change and natural catastrophe losses (source: Bouwer et al. 2007, supporting online material: www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/318/5851/753/DC1)

Consensus (unanimous) statements of the workshop participants:
1. Climate change is real, and has a significant human component related to greenhouse gases.
2. Direct economic losses of global disasters have increased in recent decades, with particularly large increases since the 1980s.
3. The increases in disaster losses primarily result from weather-related events, in particular storms and floods.
4. Climate change and variability are factors which influence disaster trends.
.
.
.
12. For future decades, the IPCC (2001) expects there to be increases in the frequency and/or intensity of some extreme events as a result of anthropogenic climate change. In the absence of disaster reduction measures, such increases will cause a further rise in losses.
***

Conclusion (pt.B):
Seen from the insurance industry’s perspective, the loss evolution and the principal factors influencing it can be summarised as follows: rising loss figures due to socioeconomic developments do not generally cause problems for insurers, since the linear nature of the increase in premiums and sums insured (i.e. capital stock) ensures that the effective loss ratio remains constant. However, this does not apply to increases driven by storm intensity. To prevent rising loss ratios, the premium would have to be recalculated to take account of the changes in the underlying parameters. Without this, the insurer would face growing losses. We believe that this paper’s findings on the role climate-related change plays in the increased losses confirms that insurance industry models should take this factor into account (see also Faust 2006).
...and to repeat that last line from their conclusion:

We believe that this paper’s findings on the role climate-related change plays in the increased losses confirms that insurance industry models should take this factor into account.

...just to follow up on that p.s. from yesterday.


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" were you referrng to Freeman Dyson ?"

Dyson is brilliant, to be sure. He's also not a climate scientist. Having recently read a very long piece on him, I note that he has a severe personal problem with this guy Hanson, but doesn't actual talk about the science.

The reference to non-scientists was to the idiot factories percolating this crap through the internet. It's not PNAS or Science or Nature. It's CATO! Brilliant! They get to decide the scientific issues - just like the creationists they want to portray both sides as equals.

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Originally Posted By: TheFallibleFiend
..just like the creationists they want to portray both sides as equals..
But our Universe appears like being observed from dual perspective, whenever the the distance scale becomes sufficiently larger. This is quite normal and predictable behavior even in context of pure random geometry. When we illuminate a pot inside of foam (or sufficiently dense gas, the density fluctuations of which appears like foam), the pot becomes illuminated from all sides. Technically, we can see its outside surface by the same way, like interior, just in less fragmented way in analogy of so called Mobius strip or Klein bottle geometry.

By my opinion, our view of distant evolution appears dual from the very some reason (i.e. both gradualistic, both catastrophic).

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the end is near.. yeah.. but we are not subject to encounter it. i think in 500 more years.. the heat waves right now seemed undesirable and the number of deaths are increasing because of this phenomenon.

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I live on a boat and the river evaporated so bad this summer that I've mangled my propellor getting off the river bed.


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Originally Posted By: ImranCan
Early last year I posted that the "wheels would have fallen off" the AGW theory by the end of 2008. I think I was about 4 months too early in my prediction. Recently there have been a number of polls showing an increasing number of people becoming increasingly sceptical. And now in the last few days, a whole rash of articles that tell me the end is nigh ...... its almost over ! Good luck in the future Mr. Gore !

http://www.cato.org/special/climatechange/alternate_version.html

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/chris_ayres/article6011157.ece

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/29/magazine/29Dyson-t.html?_r=2&hp=&pagewanted=all

http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech-mainmenu-30/environment/942

http://www.examiner.com/x-6503-Ft-Lauderdale-Science-News-Examiner~y2009m3d31-Climate-change-global-warming-and-all-the-hype

http://deltafarmpress.com/news_archive/robinson-column-0331/

http://www.newsmax.com/brennan/global_warming_UN/2009/03/31/198054.html


Maybe now we can get back to some serious issues.




Such a very amazing link!
Thanks you for the post.

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Just fyi....
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

October 4, 2011

Summer 2011: Arctic sea ice near record lows
"The summer sea ice melt season has ended in the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent reached its low for the year, the second lowest in the satellite record, on September 9. The minimum extent was...
only slightly above 2007, the record low year, even though weather conditions this year were not as conducive to ice loss as in 2007. Both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route were open for a period during September."

Average [Arctic sea ice] extent for September 2011 was 4.61 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles), 2.43 million square kilometers (938,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.

"As in recent years, northern shipping routes opened up this summer. The Northern Sea Route opened by mid August and still appeared to be open as of the end of September. The southern "Amundsen Route" of the Northwest Passage, through the straits of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, opened for the fifth year in a row."

"....Fifth year in a row!"
I didn't know that!

That is 34% below "normal," the recent average, again!

~ wink


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Are you saying that the Ice at the Arctic is melting faster
or is more ice melting during the same time frame?

or has the time frame increased and this is the reason more ice is melting?

has the Arctic summer period become more hotter than normal?



from the looks of the above graph , the time period has also increased along with the increase of ice melt.

this is evident by drawing a line through the different levels in the graph.

indicating longer melt periods.

which should be a major concern.

2008 was a active year for volcanic activity which may have induced the cooling trend in the arctic resulting in more ice in the arctic in 2009.

google search for 2008 volcano eruption


2007 4.30 1.66 -10.2
2008 4.67 1.80 -11.1
2009 5.36 2.07 -11.2
2010 4.90 1.89 -11.6
2011 4.61 1.78 -12.0
1979 to 2000 average 7.04 2.72
1979 to 2010 average 6.52 2.52

which would explain the 0.69 increase from 2008 - 2009
in contrast to the 0.37 increase from 2007 - 2008

of course an active year of volcanic activity
is most likely due to the warming effects of
global warming , so increased volcanic activity
is to be expected again as soon as the cooling
wears off and the planet heats up yet again.

from the looks of it the rebounding has already
brought us back to 2008 levels.

but after all its a rebounding effect so it will fluctuate.

we should all hope that there are more volcano
eruptions that will cool the earth again , one
thing we really dont want is to have the earth
get too hot because then there might be a massive
eruption , hopefully not at the antarctic and
especially not at yellowstone.

I would think it would be a good idea for those
scientist to inject sulfur into the atmosphere
if we start getting too warm again.


scientist discuss injecting sulfur into atmosphere in 2006 to battle global warming







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Originally Posted By: paul
Are you saying that the Ice at the Arctic is melting faster or is more ice melting during the same time frame?

...or has the time frame increased and this is the reason more ice is melting?

...has the Arctic summer period become more hotter than normal?
===

I would think it would be a good idea for those scientist to inject sulfur into the atmosphere
if we start getting too warm again.


Hi Paul,
Those are all good questions, and it would seem so for all of your scenarios; but I don't have any conclusions based on the graph, it's just "for your information" so to speak.

I did notice that a vertical line (drawn imaginarily) shows a shifting, for the "end of melting / beginning of re-freeze," to later in the month of Sept. I don't know what is happening during winter though....
But it looks to be more that 2 standard deviations below normal, year-round... just fyi.
===

There are other good ways to fix our problems. Why would simply masking the symptoms (with SO2) seem like a good idea? And what unintended consequences would altering our atmosphere even further produce? Should't we work to maintain the naturally evolved equilibrium; the balance that our species co-evolved with, instead of trying to geoengineer a new planet?

Land Use is 30% of the CO2 problem. Land Use affects many of the 8 Millennium Development Goals. Land Use is the basis of economies and economic problems. Changing land use (and biomass management) can solve those problems and undo the damage done to the atmosphere by recently oxidizing too much carbon.

Hint: Fire oxidizes carbon; Pyrolysis reduces carbon!
see: Reinventing Fire
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/ReinventingFire
===

Did you see: http://www.scienceagogo.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=41004#Post41004
....

As E. O. Wilson (Father of Sociobiology) suggests, rather than trying to transcend Nature, we should aspire to be as good as Nature.

...or one might say, we need to aspire to "work with" and "fit in with" Nature, rather than working to transcend our naturally evolved nature.

Wm. Cronon's, "Changes in the Land" in addition to "Larding the Lean Earth" by Steven Stoll, show how market economies are based on land use, and our misunderstanding of land ecosystems. Within the past decade, new information on land ecosystem function and land use have revealed new options for ecological management and economic sustainability. See also:

The book "Vestal Fire" by Stephen Pyne, confirms the details of our co-evolution with fire (as a tool for land use & economic growth).

It is time for us to evolve on to the next stage of using fire as a tool. Pyrolysis, used for carbon reduction, is that next step. It gives us energy, but controls the redox (oxidation/reduction) balance of the global carbon cycle. Pyrolysis can be used to generate energy and chemically reduce carbon.

Fire oxidizes carbon; Pyrolysis reduces carbon!
Pun intended.... Get it?

~ wink


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the natural way would be better I suppose.
but that would take a long time , what I was thinking was that
if it looks as if there is a dire need to rapidly cool down the earth the sulfur injection would be an ideal method.

we might even think about using this approach until all the
oil is gone just to offset its impact on global warming.

being reasonable about it tells me that people who have gasoline burning cars will still be driving them or at least someone else will be driving them in the next 10 - 20 years from now.

concrete production is not decreasing thanks to developing countries such as china.

there is no sudden fix to cool the earth in any natural way.

other than just forcing people to not drive their existing cars and also forcing existing coal plants to stop burning coal.

so you could think of it as a way to prevent our stupidity
from destroying human life on this planet until we become smart.


3/4 inch of dust build up on the moon in 4.527 billion years,LOL and QM is fantasy science.

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