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paul Offline OP
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russia is having it pretty bad this winter.
6 day old news -60 F 738 dead since mid-jan


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That news is two years old. It dates from Feb 6, 2006.


If you don't care for reality, just wait a while; another will be along shortly. --A Rose

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Quote:
That news is two years old. It dates from Feb 6, 2006.


your right , I had searched for
" current russian cold weather death toll "
and I suppose I drifted , sorry.

anyway that article does give a basis for comparison to this winters upcomming events.

according to the imagery of
feb 6 06
and the imagery of
jan 12 08
2/06/06 and 1/12/08 side by side

there is already quite a bit more cold weather , yet I cant find the death toll on the net...

and it looks like europe is in for a freezing too , again.

only this time it appears that the middle east and indo china
and parts of the affrican continent will recieve a portion of cold weather.

it may snow in egypt this year !!!

lets hope that those who are not warned of the upcomming freezes
are able to protect themselves and find some way to warm up and eat.

and lets hope they are not relying solely on electricity or natural gas , as gas heaters and water heaters these days will not work unless the electricity is also working.

sleeping bags might be your best investment this year.


thanks for pointing out my mistake.


Last edited by paul; 01/13/08 06:48 PM.

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Originally Posted By: paul
Quote:
That news is two years old. It dates from Feb 6, 2006.


your right , I had searched for
" current russian cold weather death toll "
and I suppose I drifted , sorry.
...................>
there is already quite a bit more cold weather , yet I cant find the death toll on the net...
..............................>
it may snow in egypt this year !!!
..........................>
thanks for pointing out my mistake.



[quote=Mike Kremer][reply to Paul]

Its not really any big mistake, Paul
The reason you didnt find winter deaths from cold in Russia, is they probably wouldnt publish that data.
Plus there are very few deaths from cold these days, I'm guessing about 50 max:
around the world in a very cold winter?
If you want Deaths ....think Global Warming.!! And Heat
Back in 2003 Europe had the hottest Summer for 500 years
Then over 9000 people died in just two weeks of summer heat!!
Greece and France suffered a lot.



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"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.


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Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
If you want Deaths ....think Global Warming.!! And Heat
Back in 2003 Europe had the hottest Summer for 500 years
Then over 9000 people died in just two weeks of summer heat!!
Greece and France suffered a lot.


Interestingly, Biorn Lomb0rg in his video, "Kool It" [sic] points out that more deaths occur from cold than heat (so GW should be good). While the statistic may be true, it's still an idiotic argument for the film! I think he even advocates 'air-conditioning' to solve the problem. frown
I think there were ultimately over 20,000 deaths attributed to that heat wave.

Much of Bjorn's stat. has to do with the cold affecting poor and homeless folks, while the heat affects a different demographic (elderly, etc.).



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Originally Posted By: samwik
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
If you want Deaths ....think Global Warming.!! And Heat
Back in 2003 Europe had the hottest Summer for 500 years
Then over 9000 people died in just two weeks of summer heat!!
Greece and France suffered a lot.


Interestingly, Biorn Lomb0rg in his video, "Kool It" [sic] points out that more deaths occur from cold than heat (so GW should be good). While the statistic may be true, it's still an idiotic argument for the film! I think he even advocates 'air-conditioning' to solve the problem. frown
I think there were ultimately over 20,000 deaths attributed to that heat wave.

Much of Bjorn's stat. has to do with the cold affecting poor and homeless folks, while the heat affects a different demographic (elderly, etc.).


[quote=Mike Kremer] 2 samwik

Whether 9000 or 20,000 ....deaths by heat or cold is a tragedy.

I would add ...."has to do with the cold affecting vodka and alcohol drinking poor and homeless folks",.......etc.

Alcohol is the last thing one should drink in a cold exposed
environment. It brings the blood to the skin surface, making
you die from cold quicker.

Theoretically it should be easier and cheaper to keep cool, (swim in water) than get warm.....just as well in a warming world dont you think?




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Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
Theoretically it should be easier and cheaper to keep cool, (swim in water) than get warm

Yes, well... for people with a pool maybe.

...no comment on the vodka comment.

...but I think people are better adapted to tolerate and endure the cold than they are for overheating.


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Durring a summer heat wave , sometimes the electricity goes out.
air conditioners and fans no longer work.

one utility/thing that might still work is the water.

getting into the shower and cooling down your body several times a day can prevent heat stroke and save your life.

water powered fans could provide the air flow and a mist of water for emergencys.


(the motor can be had for $9.00 at your local hardware store)
its called a drill pump , used to transfer fluids using a handheld electric drill.

attach a fan blade to the part where the drill is supposed to go.

and hook up a water line to it from your shower head , run one line outside or into the washing machine drain line or toilet.

you will need to buy the fittings needed to hook to the shower head.

you can even power a small electricity generator with water pressure this way.

the amounts of water you use up will of course raise your water bill through the roof , but you would still be alive to pay the bill !!!

a great way to survive in the heat...

buy a small tent and pitch it in your living room.
mist water over the tent , as the water evaporates the heat will be drawn from inside the tent.

p.s.

dont forget to get the small yard type swimming pool to catch the water rolling down off the tent , and be prepared to have water damage in your house from the moisture that is now there.

the above is for people who live in city apartments.

if you have your own house , this might be better in your yard under a tarp.

or on your porch , somewhere out of the sun.

you can buy a 5 gallon shower bag that is used to hang from a tree limb to use to mist water over your tent if your water goes out also.

your water heater will still have lots of water in it.
and after a few hours it will not be hot anyway.
you can refill the 5 gallon shower as needed if you catch the water in the swimming pool.

this water will all be evaporated in a week or so , so use it wisely.

most water facilities have a back up diesel power generation unit that is there to be used in emergencies , so use the water.






Last edited by paul; 01/15/08 02:22 AM.

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Originally Posted By: paul
the amounts of water you use up will of course raise your water bill through the roof , but you would still be alive to pay the bill !!!
That's okay; the planet won't mind.
...and there'll be so much more water in the future...(added sarcastically).

I guess I just think that relying on a precious resource (and more energy to manage it), just to keep those of us lucky enough to have access to that precious resource...

...is okay?

...as long as our aging infrastructure isn't overstressed by such events (or enough other people don't also think to use water pressure).

What about the other animals in the biosphere?
(maybe hook up little showers for them also?)

I admit, you have some good survival tips above.
Ultimately though, this is just treating symptoms.

It's not a pretty picture, but then evolution isn't about aesthetics.



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Thats an interesting point :
- given that global warming affects winter more than summer, night more than day and extreme cold more than extreme heat ..
- given that 25,000-40,000 British people (a rich country) die every year from cold (see recent news article about the rise in energy prices)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7110592.stm
- given that 1.5 million Europeans die every year due to cold - mostly the elderly (exactly the same demographic as the 20000 heat deaths in France in 2003) and mostly in poorer eastern European nations (and mostly nothing to do with alcohol)
- given that cold related deaths reduce the life expectancy of the average American by a decade
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/dec2007/2007-12-31-096.asp
- given that tens of millions of Chinese die every year due to cold (and for anyone thats ever lived north of the Yangtze you know what I mean)
- given that with IPCC mid case GW scenarios heat deaths will not outweigh cold deaths until the 25th century

... maybe you should be a little less cavalier about prescribing whether climate change will good or bad for people.

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Quote:
tens of millions of Chinese die every year due to cold


the population of atlanta ga is around 460,000 I think

so thats apx 20 atlantas per 10 million...

and the chinese government allows this to happen?
and we buy almost all of our products from china?

we are condoning the way these people are being treated
by buying from them...

we are pumping more pollution into the atmosphere by buying our products from china.

how much more pollution goes into the atmosphere by transporting the chinese products to the U.S.

they dont even care how much pollution they pump out.
no regulations over there , you cant even see the horizon over there for the pollution.

yet we buy and buy from them as they let their people die like this.

its not the chinese peoples fault that we buy from them , its the traitorous american buisness practices that turned on us in favor of more proffits.

they didnt want to maintain proper pollution standards for production in the U.S. and they found cheap / slave labor in china.

hell they are buying our military bases.

we really need to boost their economy , it is so good for us.

COSCO...Chinese Overseas Shipping Co

Quote:
Despite the fact that other ports have been offered, the wholly owned subsidiary of the People's Liberation Army seems determined that Long Beach is its best strategic location. And I believe the reason extends well beyond the better layout plans.

Let's put aside, for a minute, all the strings that were pulled from the White House to put this project on the table in the first place. And let's examine the potential for a Long Beach base from the Chinese perspective.

COSCO has a long history of being used by its Chinese military masters for spying and spreading chaos through smuggling of arms and drugs.



DOD BRAC ... Chinese COSCO container/shipyard largest in the world

I wonder how many of their citizens deaths from cold weather could have been prevented by the money that this costco.

lets roll China... U.S. laying down for it...




Last edited by paul; 01/15/08 04:31 PM.

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Originally Posted By: ImranCan
Thats an interesting point :
- given that global warming affects winter more than summer, night more than day and extreme cold more than extreme heat ..
- given that 25,000-40,000 British people (a rich country) die every year from cold (see recent news article about the rise in energy prices)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7110592.stm
- given that 1.5 million Europeans die every year due to cold - mostly the elderly (exactly the same demographic as the 20000 heat deaths in France in 2003) and mostly in poorer eastern European nations (and mostly nothing to do with alcohol)
- given that cold related deaths reduce the life expectancy of the average American by a decade
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/dec2007/2007-12-31-096.asp
- given that tens of millions of Chinese die every year due to cold (and for anyone thats ever lived north of the Yangtze you know what I mean)
- given that with IPCC mid case GW scenarios heat deaths will not outweigh cold deaths until the 25th century

... maybe you should be a little less cavalier about prescribing whether climate change will good or bad for people.



My decision about what is good or bad for people is based on what is good for life on earth in general.
Rapid climate change is greatly exacerbating the 6th Mass Extinction. Mankind depends on the entire biosphere and will suffer if this extinction event continues.

It is the increasing variability of the heat and cold events that kills unprepared people, not the average temp.
Your points sound very much like those of Lomborg and Singer. Is this where you cite the "Chinese & IPCC" facts from?
Please note these quotes, from those links you provided, which speak to the "interesting" statistics you are using above. Like Lomborg did, I think you are not subtracting the normal winter increase in deaths.

"Colder countries, like Scandinavian countries and Germany, don't have that sort of level [of "fuel poverty"], so people are more likely to die of the cold in this country [Britain] than they are in colder countries."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7110592.stm
...stiff upper lip, and all that....

The death rate declines soon after scorching temperatures subside, while deaths after cold spells continue to increase for weeks, the economists found.
Death rates do not escalate after cold snaps that occur when the price of oil is high, the study shows.
Cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are the top causes of death for those who die following severe hot or cold weather.
The study found that those hardest hit by both heat and cold waves are adults 75 years of age or older, many of whom were already physically vulnerable and who would likely have died even in the absence of the temperature shocks.
Moretti and Deschenes said that evidence suggests that people can get acclimatized to the cold. The recorded death rate was substantially larger in countries where people were exposed to 10 or fewer cold days a year and lower in counties that have at least 90 cold days a year, they said.
Moretti said, there seem to be few immediate options for helping those most at risk deal with cold weather dangers: "A lifetime of deprivation is hard to counteract in the short run."

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/dec2007/2007-12-31-096.asp

Please google Lomborg and Singer:
http://www.lomborg-errors.dk/coolitBchap2heat.htm

Do you recognize speech designed to appeal to reactionary emotions, and not to logic?
Read J. Fred Singer or Bjorn Lomborg; it is blatant!
Singer gained his weasel experience and notoriety working as a resource for the tobacco companies back in the 80-90's.

...to paraphrase....
...maybe you should check into the veracity of your sources before making decisions about the future of life on earth.

By your reasoning, cold deaths will increase with GW because people will be less prepared for the inevitable cold snaps that will happen in the newly warmed Canada and Russia.


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Paul wrote this and a whole lot more....

During a summer heat wave , sometimes the electricity goes out.
air conditioners and fans no longer work.

one utility/thing that might still work is the water.
..................................................................................................................................
What water? With Climate Change you may well find that this commodity is the scarcest thing to source, and living as I do in an area of Australia that is still in drought I can tell you that your suggestions would be totally illegal here. Our laws for private water use are very strict indeed as we need to conserve that little we have left.

Excessive heat is dreadful--already this summer we here have had 3 days over 40 degrees C, other areas are much worse. Ironically the best way to beat that sort of heat is to bathe in water, or shower, and drink lots of non-fizzy non- alcoholic drinks- water is best! Every summer there are deaths from dehydration -- I would rather be too cold than too hot!

The feeling used to be that the next war would be fought for water, not oil. Surely with climate change water resources will change very much won't they? China already has many areas with serious water deficit.


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Quote:
What water? With Climate Change you may well find that this commodity is the scarcest thing to source, and living as I do in an area of Australia


maybe next summer your government can pump up some sea water and spray it over the ground , somewhere where the land is not being used , this could cause rain...quick.

and you would have a salt bed , sea salt is in demand these days.

hey if they covered an area with plastic sheeting , then used pipes that are cut in half longways , and pumped the sea water into these half pipes , you could just capture the water as it drops down from the plastic and forms streams of pure clean water.

also you could grow crops in this type of scenario , just plant in between the pipes of sea water.

you could harvest the runoff water , the crops , and the dried sea salf from the pipes.

perhaps water/sea salt/crop farms would become a profitable buisnesses there.

the way I see it , we cant depend too strongly on nature any more to do things the way it did up until recently.

we have got to assess , adjust , and react
because nature adjusted.



Last edited by paul; 01/22/08 06:11 AM.

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Recent info on Russian weather...

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7009739004

Quote:
given that global warming affects winter more than summer, night more than day and extreme cold more than extreme heat


Which is why I never understood the fear mongering about heat related deaths. Extreme cold is the worst weather. You can't leave your home, your tears freeze, no running water...Just horrible living conditions...If you can survive!

I visited Washington D.C. in the 1980's during the 2nd week of spring. It was so cold, I couldn't believe it! I was miserable the whole time I was there. I can't understand why so many people choose to live under those conditions. This was my first and only experience with real snow, and I couldn't stand it! To be honest, I seriously doubt that anyone there would notice if their winters did heat up 20 F. That was the last time I dared to travel north of Austin. lol.

I've never experienced power outages due to hot weather, but I hear how ice storms break limbs and knock out power lines.

Water is plentiful in this area of Texas...We are known as "The Country of 1100 Springs". Some springs produce 4-5 foot fountains from depths of 20 ft! Some are so powerful, the Army Corps have capped the springs to control the release.

This desalination plant would look nice next to the Opera House.


http://pruned.blogspot.com/2007/06/teatro-del-agua.html

Or, watch the video here...Click the "water theater" link.

http://dsc.discovery.com/video/player.html?playerId=203711706&bclid=958525258


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That tower would be an impressive site.

But I think it would be overkill for the job.

this is a great idea , and it looks like it would work well , just extremely expensive.

I think he would do much better just using long insulated pipes
extending from the center to the periphery.

and I would give the glass an incline to the center , for wind acceleration , and washdown access , to wash off the dust that would normaly collect on the glass.

I would also scatter black sand from apx 3/4 the radius to the center , this would greatly intensify the heat produced , and would set in motion a super draft as the heated air expands and is pulled to the center.
he might need to blacktop / pave the entire 3/4 undersides and use concrete to do the outer 1/4 of the area.

the wind entering this thing would be like air entering a jet engine.

anyway there are lots of things to think about such as
as the air expands , if the air cannot move up and out fast enought then the air will move out at the periphery.

and it could create a tornado that might destroy the entire project , because if proper flow is not designed into it , and the wind reverses direction , a tornado could result inside the tower that would create a vacume and rip the glass top out.

great find and a great idea.


Last edited by paul; 01/23/08 01:22 AM.

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Originally Posted By: Max

Which is why I never understood the fear mongering about heat related deaths. Extreme cold is the worst weather. You can't leave your home, your tears freeze, no running water...Just horrible living conditions...If you can survive!

I agree that personally I'd prefer to deal with the heat rather than the cold; but only given the modern conveniences of our high entropy, consumerist culture. Life in general though, ekes out a living in extreme cold better than it does when enduring extreme heat. The points above (post #24632), from ImranCan's links, validate this view.

Overall though, I think that this debating about a certain number of increased (or decreased) human deaths will seem pathetic when compared to the number of deaths related to climate change induced disruptions of the familiar ecosystems services that provide us with water, food, and moderate weather (which easily could lead to disruptions in the societal services providing our transportation and distribution economies, health and legal support, and energy supply).


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Paul- I assume you are joking---Or have you never heard about salinity? It's another huge problem here and can pollute the water table very quickly. And few crops grow in areas of high salinity.

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I notice you never actually refuted my original point ... that more people die from cold than will ever die from heat ....


Originally Posted By: samwik

...I think that this debating about a certain number of increased (or decreased)human deaths will seem pathetic when compared to the number of deaths related to climate change induced disruptions of the familiar ecosystems services that provide us with water, food, and moderate weather


Sorry mate - now you are beginning to sound like that idiot James Lovelock who recently stated - and I paraphrase here ... "by the end of this century human life will be reduced to a few breeding pairs living above the Arctic circle.... global population reduced to less than 500 million ..."

Honestly - what total rubbish !! Its so easy to scare everyone - just tell them the world is going to end. Clobber together a few statistics, plot some graphs which predict catastrophe (eg. IPCC reports) - it doesn't matter if your predictions are wrong in the short term (yes - global temperature has been flat for a decade now)- just refuse to discuss it ... after all we are right about the longer term - aren't we ? - we have peer reviewed science on our side. Blame every natural disaster (eg. Al Gore and Hurricane Katrina, heatwaves in Europe) on this one big global issue. Terrify everyone with promises of more extreme weather when even the IPCC admits there is almost zero evidence. And on and on and on and on and on ......

The world has real problems - not enough water (which ironically shoule be less of an issue in a warmer world), malaria which kills 3 milion every year, AIDS (2.5 million), diahorrea (nearly 2 million chiildren every year), indoor air pollution (1.6 million every year) - none of it has anything to do with global warming. But all the ranting about "the end of the world" takes focus away from these real problems .... they need money resources, effort, focus. Now.
Remember the MDG's ?? - remember those ? - the UN Millenium Development Goals ? Target 2015 ...

http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/

With all this squawking about GW armmageddon, most people don't even remember these.



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Ellis

Im not joking , if you do it right and dont let the sea water spill onto the ground , then the area you are using wont get salinized.

I figure that you are referencing what I said about spraying the sea water over the ground , and you would be right about this.

you could grow crops on the salt flats here in the U.S. if you used a container for the soil.

it will be this type of thing that we will need to implement if we expect to survive the upcomming climate changes.



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