Science a GoGo's Home Page Forums General Discussion Climate Change Forum Global Warming is Warming

I have written letters in the past about Global Warming
But have recently noticed that thoughts and writings in the media regarding Man Made Global warming seem to have
come off the boil.
This became very noticable when careless scientists misplaced a decimal point, in the maths workings of a 'Climate Paper'.
This got even more world wide attention when hackers breached the security of a University, and released personal E-mails from climatologists, that aired their argumentative climate differences to the general public.

Put very simply, you either believe that global warming is man made, or you do not.

The 'do not' belief is that Global Warming is a result of
natural Cyclic Change, that has been going on for tens of thousands of years.
(It also means that you accept the global cooling of the past) I dont intend to go into the reasons for the cyclic changes,.... but,
I am sure these long term cyclic changes are very valid in ideas, and scientific content

Now for the otherside of the coin.
The belief that GW is Man made, requires you to believe that the atmospheric warming is due to the increased amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere. This warming, sitting on top of the (natural?) cyclic peaks, or troughs, is just enough to ensure that the overall trend is just a tiny increase in the average temperature, over the years

I want to win back those doubters who have suddenly decided not to worry whether GW is Man-made or not.
I want to address those doubters who have taken the easy way out, by
leaving the world to its own devices.
Its these doubters that I want to bring back into the fold by discussing just one important word.....Methane.

Methane is over 20 times more powerful than C02 in its effect upon the climate.
I want to start, by pointing out a couple of not very well known facts regarding Methane production, to these GW doubters
Together with my personal idea of another unknown, and as yet unproven, methane source.

Methane is primarily produced by Bacteria feeding upon rotting damp vegetation.
Whether its on, or in the land, water, or produced in the stomachs of cattle.
Now there are about 1.5 billion managed cattle in the world.
Nor should we forget the contribution of the 7.0 billion methane producing humans living on Earth.
(Digressing for a moments fun......'Le Petomane' was a French Music Hall performer who would blow out lighted candles
on the public stage, by farting. See Wiki)

Back to the real world I hope that you are all in agreement,
vehicles, cattle and humans are all increasing. Therefore so is Methane.
In the distant past, and excluding cyclic changes, the gases from volcanic eruptions were the main reasons for temporary Global warming.
Sometime later we learned to slash and burn the forests, so that we could plant and grow crops. By growing crops we lost the C02 sink that forests provided, further increasing the production of methane.

Now here is another huge source of Methane production, not
generally talked about.......because the amount of Methane
produced can not be known with certainty, and can only be quessed about.
Im talking about the melting of the Permafrost, occuring in all cold parts of the world.
When the Permafrost melts the ground erupts and bubbles up with Methane gasses.
The Siberian Pemafrost has been melting and refreezing for a number of years now (producing what is known as 'drunken
forests') where the trees lean at angles against each other

Now I am going to guesstimate that the total production of
methane in Siberia is far more the total production of
methane from all land animals, including man.
Now why would I say that?
Because the Permafrost area of Siberia is equal in size to the areas of Germany and France combined.
Now, lets not forget Alaska, where whole villages are
dissapearing, and rivers changing course due to melting permafrost.
Again, lets factor in Canada, it has billions of acres of Permafrost.
The guestimated total of Methane bubbling out of
permafrost grounds could easily amount to many thousands of tons per year.
No wonder the Glaciers and Icebergs are secretly melting
UNDER the sea surface. Both in the Artic and Antartic oceans.
They are toppleling over more frequently than ever before.

Now I would like to add my personal thinking to an item which has never been mentioned before.........but could well add to the total of Methane production in the World.
I believe the mid-pacific circulating gyrr, which has been reported to be as big as continental USA, is full of plastic trash
and rubbish, and growing algae, all swirling around in relatively warm seas and sunshine...
My thoughts are that this is another additional (large?) source of Methane.
Remember none of the methane sources I have mentioned are going to go away. In fact methane (and CO2) production is going to increase. Just a little bit warmer and we will see the bubbling up of Clathrates, but thats another story.
I hope now that the Man made Warming doubters, after
reading the above, have now firmly made up their minds.
For extra help, and dependant on where you live, I predict you will be ordering an air conditioner within the next four years.

Drunken Trees below

http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/permafrost.html

Why not both of it?

Mike

people dont understand that the cooling is part of global warming.

they just go outside and if its colder than last year then its just common sence to them that global warming is not really happening.

my theory that the cooling is due to the depressurization effects under the melting ice could be used to explain the cooling.

using a bottle of propane gas , like the ones that are used in a camping lantern.

just open the valve and release some of the gas.

the metal container will become colder as the pressure is released.

its really that simple.

I predict that your prediction is correct.

[quote=Mike Kremer]

I wouldnt put a lot faith in any predictions re-the Weather, or Global warming. One is liable to come unstuck.
There are many many thousands of world wide weather measurements taken daily and processed
by powerful computers....they only seem to work for local areas, some of the time.
Random fluctuations, of all types, plus Chaos theory, ensure we will never sucessfully predict the weather?.

But I like your analogy regarding the Propane gas bottle.
I have never thought of it like that before.
What you are intimating is that - All the high pressure gas released from oil wells actually cools those underground areas.
Neat... This is another item that adds to the Chaos theory of the weather.

**************
In answer to Zephirs post above.
Of course you can believe in both systems at the same time.
In fact the majority of scientists do.
Most believe that Man made Global Warming sits on top of the very long term cyclic trend
of heating and cooling the Earth goes though.
In a similar way that a Volcanic dust eruption just sits on the prevailing weather system and cool the earth for a short time.

Mankinds, C02, Gas and Methane production effects, are liable to last considerably longer in time.

Mike

I havent thought about the gasses released from oil wells
that is interesting though , what I was referring to was the 300 gigatons of ice melt in greenland each year
and the 200 gigatons of ice melt that antartica is loosing each year.

for a total of 500 gigga tons

1 ton = 2000 lbs
1 cu/ft of water = 62.4 lbs

1 ton of water = 32.05 cu/ft of water
500 billion tons of water = 16,025,000,000,000 cu/ft

that loss of weight causing lower pressure inside the earth.


http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20....html?full=true

[quote=Mike Kremer]

It just goes to show that inspite of the very cold weather here in Europe, and lots of Blizzards in USA, the ice is still melting,
all 500 Giga Tons of it, as you say Paul.
The bitter cold, with more intense winter weather forecast for March in parts of the United States, have led some to question if global warming has stalled.
But
According to satellite (data), was January was the hottest month, we have ever seen," said Nicholls of Monash University's School of Geography and Environmental Science in Melbourne.

"Last November was the hottest November we've ever seen, November-January as a whole is the hottest November-January the world has seen," he said of the satellite data record since 1979.
Plus the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in December that 2000-2009
was the hottest decade since records began in 1850, and that 2009 would likely be the fifth warmest year on record.
WMO data show that eight out of the 10 hottest years on record have all been since 2000.

Mike

it used to be that you turn on the news just for a few minutes to find out what the weather is going to be the next day or so.

Borring........

and only a few times a year there would be something on about a flood or earthquake or snowstorms or landslides or tornadoes or huricanes etc...

but now the news is full of those types of events and the weather channel and news channels are more interesting than any other channels.

I hate it that these things are happening to people around the world , but I cant help to wonder whats going to be next and how severe will the weather changes be the next year.

{quote=MikeKremer]

Just found this Reuters article.
All about Methane bubbling up out of the sea, in thousands of tons.

"About 8 million tonnes of methane a year, equivalent to the annual total previously estimated from all of the world's oceans, were seeping from vast stores long trapped under permafrost below the seabed north of Russia."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6233ZU20100304

Mike

the article states 8 million tons a year.

the continueing page states a worldwide release of 440 million tons a year to use as a comparison showing that the 8 million is neglegible.

oil wells normaly burn the methane.

so I suppose the landfills are the distinct addition that we have caused , but nowadays even landfills are catchin a grip and capturing the methane to sell as a product.

theres absolutely nothing wrong with burning methane that would normaly be vented to the atmosphere.

just think how much methane canada will be releasing in the future !!

and greenland !! and the dreaded antartica releases.

I wonder if balloons could be set adrift to burn excess methane or to collect excess methane in the atmosphere.

it will take some means of collection or burning the atmospheric methane or Global Warming will accelerate
much quicker than anyone will risk there reputations to tell us.

[Quote=Mike Kremer]

You are right Paul, it is better to burn Methane, than allow it to vent into the atmosphere, where it would just aggrevate Global Warming.
This warming would further release the Clathrates under the oceans, and on frozen
lands like Canada, Russia etc.
I was surprised to learn that there are over 100 countrys that have frozen methane Hydrates in their soil, or sea!

The US DOE estimate that there are more than > 400 Million Trillion Cubic Feet < of
Methane in the world, concentrated as Methane Hydrate !
Some of those 100 countries are:- China, Russia, US, Tibet, Korea, Japan, Canada, etc.
....and in the seas around the Artic and Antartic lands.

One Cubic meter of Clathrate ice, contains about 164 cubic meters of Methane gas!
And its very pure, probably even more pure than the Methane that comes out of Oil Wells.
A number of Countries are already experimenting how to extract and burn the Methane
for power, without losing it into the Atmosphere.

http://www.physorg.com/news183988405.html

http://www.physorg.com/news157038377.html

400 million trillion cubic feet !!!

area of a sphere = 4 * pi * r^2

earths diameter = 7913 miles

earths radius = 3956 miles

r^2 = 3956 * 3956 = 15649936

4 * pi = 12.56

12.56 * 15649936 = 196,662,895 square miles


1 sq mile = 5280 ft * 5280 ft = 27,878,400 sq ft

400,000,000,000,000,000,000. cubic feet methane.

14348025711662 square miles of methane 1 ft in height

72,957 ft above the earths surface is pure methane.

13 miles above the earths surface.