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#25477 - 04/17/08 12:53 AM Artic Ice Free by 2013 !!
Mike Kremer Offline

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Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
The Artic is likely to be ice-free by the Summer of 2013, Prehaps even earlier, if you listen to the audio tape, by Professor Wieslaw Maslowski....found in the page below-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

After that you might want to look in Real Time at the thousands
of Buoys , both floating and fixed in the Worlds Oceans, that are measuring Sea Temperatures and Sea Heights by Satellite and Radar
The Artic Sea Buoy Radar measurements are by courtesy of the
Canadien Goverment.
You can Zoom in or out and check upon temperatures and shipping
here for the World

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shiplocations.phtml

And here for the Artic (canadien Data)

I seem to have lost this data? Hopefully someone will refind it?
Prehaps click on the Buoys up in the Artic? and Zoom in?


Ihave no time to spare at the moment, so please listen.
look and make comments. I will return to this interesting subject in 2-3 days.





Edited by Mike Kremer (04/17/08 01:21 AM)
Edit Reason: I screwed up
_________________________
.

.
"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#25495 - 04/18/08 03:41 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: Mike Kremer]
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
The Artic is likely to be ice-free by the Summer of 2013, Prehaps even earlier, if you listen to the audio tape, by Professor Wieslaw Maslowski....found in the page below-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

After that you might want to look in Real Time at the thousands
of Buoys , both floating and fixed in the Worlds Oceans, that are measuring Sea Temperatures and Sea Heights by Satellite and Radar



Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

Found some extra info regarding my above post.

Interesting temperature readings from the thousands of sea Buoys that are not giving the readings most Scientists expected?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025


_________________________
.

.
"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#25519 - 04/19/08 01:50 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: Mike Kremer]
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
The Artic is likely to be ice-free by the Summer of 2013, Prehaps even earlier, if you listen to the audio tape, by Professor Wieslaw Maslowski....found in the page below-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

After that you might want to look in Real Time at the thousands
of Buoys , both floating and fixed in the Worlds Oceans, that are measuring Sea Temperatures and Sea Heights by Satellite and Radar



Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

Found some extra info regarding my above post.

Interesting temperature readings from the thousands of sea Buoys that are not giving the readings most Scientists expected?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025




Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

Yet another item, allied to Artic melting.
A Glacier Lake in Greenland, -that disappeared with the force of Niagara, within two hours.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland_speedup.html



_________________________
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.
"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#25679 - 04/24/08 08:05 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: Mike Kremer]
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
Thanks, Mike....

'nuf said
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#25698 - 04/25/08 03:39 PM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: samwik]
ImranCan Offline
Member

Registered: 09/04/07
Posts: 94
Loc: Brunei
Very nice picture .... but it hardly proves that either a) the arctic will be ice free or b) polar bears are in trouble.

For all you know this picture could have been taken in Singapore Zoo.


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#25724 - 04/26/08 06:22 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: ImranCan]
samwik Offline
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Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
All very true.
...or even photoshopped!

I was thinking it looks as if he, or she's, been shading the ice on top, leading to the creation of that odd shape.
But it also looks as if he's been recently swimming.
Maybe he ventures out to find pack ice; but has to return, finding none. Ohhhh, the humanity!! . laugh

But you are right; I was over the top in my editorialized comment on that picture.

_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#26008 - 05/10/08 01:16 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: samwik]
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
Hi Samwick
After having another look at this sad Polar Bear pic, I have come to the conclusion that the picture is probably genuine.
I think the Bear rested on top of a normal, but small iceberg.
I suspect it is the action of the "warmer" sea that eroded and melted the ice to produce the circular pillar of ice that looks so precarious?

Mike K
.

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#26010 - 05/10/08 05:31 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: Mike Kremer]
ImranCan Offline
Member

Registered: 09/04/07
Posts: 94
Loc: Brunei
Attached is a link with lots of nice pictures of polar bears ...

http://www.hickerphoto.com/polar-bear-pictures-photos.htm

Amazing how well they seem to do on Land ....



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#26014 - 05/10/08 08:07 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: Mike Kremer]
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
Hi Samwick
After having another look at this sad Polar Bear pic, I have come to the conclusion that the picture is probably genuine.
I think the Bear rested on top of a normal, but small iceberg.
I suspect it is the action of the "warmer" sea that eroded and melted the ice to produce the circular pillar of ice that looks so precarious?

Mike K.
Oh yes, I "moved" that photo over to this thread, hoping to keep that discussion free from "polar bear jingoism."
Polar bears (and Al Gore) seem to have become a common distraction in debates on social policy and climate change, diverting the subject into emotional issues. frown

I suppose either could be a topic on their own, but I prefer the physical sciences over wildlife biology; I'd keep my contributions fairly limited, I think.
My speculation on the nature of the photo, and circumstances, was meant to be more sarcastic (if not also possible).

It sure was a striking photo though; regardless of any implications, or lack thereof.
smile
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#27393 - 07/31/08 04:03 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: Mike Kremer]
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
The Artic is likely to be ice-free by the Summer of 2013, Prehaps even earlier, if you listen to the audio tape, by Professor Wieslaw Maslowski....found in the page below-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm

After that you might want to look in Real Time at the thousands
of Buoys , both floating and fixed in the Worlds Oceans, that are measuring Sea Temperatures and Sea Heights by Satellite and Radar



Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

Found some extra info regarding my above post.

Interesting temperature readings from the thousands of sea Buoys that are not giving the readings most Scientists expected?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025




Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

Yet another item, allied to Artic melting.
A Glacier Lake in Greenland, -that disappeared with the force of Niagara, within two hours.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland_speedup.html



Thanks again Mike... back on topic....

Over a year ago I offered a little bet.
...haha (...little bet!), I wonder what $20 will be worth in 2012?
http://www.scienceagogo.com/forum/ubbthr...21752#Post21752
Originally Posted By: 21752
...I did hear it mentioned that there were 5 more ice shelves like this one which could potentially break off, up in that region.

Betting pool? Dibs on 2012 for all six to be floaters, for 20 bucks.


Correspondents in Edmonton | July 31, 2008

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24104517-11949,00.html

"An area of ice covering about 18sqkm has broken off Canada's largest remaining ice shelf."

In a development consistent with climate change theories, the enormous icy plain broke free some time last week and began slowly drifting into the Arctic Ocean.
The piece had been a part of the shelf for 3000 years.

At 440sqkm in size and 40m thick, the Ward Hunt shelf is the largest of those remnants -- even bigger than the Antarctic shelf that collapsed this year and seven times the size of the Ayles Ice Shelf that broke off in 2005 from Ellesmere's western coast.

Dr. Mueller did not blame the Ward Hunt breakup specifically on climate change, but said it was consistent with the theory.
"We're in a different climate now," he said.
It's the same all over the Arctic, said Gary Stern, co-leader of a major international research program on sea ice.

~More updates to come ...no doubt.
wink
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#27767 - 09/16/08 04:08 PM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: samwik]
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080915162428.htm

Arctic Sea Ice At Lowest Recorded Level Ever
ScienceDaily (Sep. 16, 2008) — Arctic sea ice may well have reached its lowest volumes ever, as summer ice coverage of the Arctic Sea looks set to be close to last year’s record lows, with thinner ice overall.

Final figures on minimum ice coverage for 2008 are expected in a matter of days, but they are already flirting with last year’s record low of 1.59 million square miles, or 4.13 million square kilometres.

“If you take reduced ice thickness into account, there is probably less ice overall in the Arctic this year than in any other year since monitoring began,” said Martin Sommerkorn, WWF International Arctic Programme’s Senior Climate Change Advisor.

“This is also the first year that the Northwest Passage over the top of North America, and the Northeast Passage over the top of Russia are both free of ice.”

Dr. Sommerkorn said the continuing loss of older, thicker ice means that the Arctic ice cover is following a trend of becoming younger and thinner each year.

The area of ice that is at least five years old has decreased by 56 per cent between 1985 and 2007. The oldest ice types have essentially disappeared.

Taken together, the new figures clearly show the Arctic is experiencing the continuation of an accelerated declining trend.

“We are expecting confirmation of 2008 being either the lowest or the second-lowest year in terms of summer ice coverage,” Dr. Sommerkorn said.
“This means two years in a row of record lows since we started recording Arctic sea ice coverage, and a continuing catastrophic downward trend.
...
The trend of melting Arctic ice is also alarming for the rest of the world. “The Arctic is a key factor in stabilising the global climate,” Dr Sommerkorn said.
...
“This means there will be two powerful feedbacks from the Arctic affecting the global environment. This is not just an Arctic problem, it is a global problem, and it demands a global response.”
....

~just fyi
===
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#27770 - 09/16/08 07:37 PM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: samwik]
paul Offline
Megastar

Registered: 03/21/06
Posts: 4136
I wonder if the bear was rescued or left to drift?

really sad if the latter is true.

but me I wouldnt try and rescue the poor bear myself , could be the last thing I ever did.
unless I could throw a lasso/rope around that ice and tow it in.

but I would call it in to someone , I wonder who you might call
in a case such as this.

I wonder if a fund could be raised using just this picture
to help save them from what we have done.

think of what it would be like sitting there getting your picture taken and hopeing you would be rescued then watching the boat move off over the horrizon as night falls on your little dissapearing piece of melting ice...

great find samwik.
I for one am glad you posted it , and glad you posted it here.



_________________________
3/4 inch of dust build up on the moon in 4.527 billion years,LOL and QM is fantasy science.

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#27829 - 09/22/08 07:07 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: paul]
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
Thanks Paul,
You noticed I edited out the stuff about polar bears from that previous news article. While they garner a lot of attention (sometimes too much), I try to focus on the other important functions of the Arctic such as moderating global weather and facilitating the base of the oceanic food chain.
===

Sea ice in the Arctic appears to have passed its minimum extent for 2008 without breaking last year's record.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7619770.stm

"I think this summer has been more remarkable than last year, in fact, because last year we had really optimal conditions to melt a lot of ice," said Walt Meier, a research scientist at NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado.
"We had clear skies with the Sun blazing down, we had warm temperatures, and winds that pushed the ice edge northwards," he told BBC News.
"We didn't have any of this this year, and yet we still came within 10% of the record; so people might be tempted to call it a recovery, but I don't think that's a good term, we're still on a downwards trend towards ice-free Arctic summers."
===

Well, just a day later....
The verdict came in, more or less.
Now we get to wait another year to see....

~ wink
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#27831 - 09/22/08 03:06 PM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: samwik]
paul Offline
Megastar

Registered: 03/21/06
Posts: 4136
Samwik

As you know the melting ice in icebergs and ice shelves will
actually cause sea levels to drop , it is the ice that melts
on ground that will cause any sea level rise , we havent experienced a large amount of that type of melting that hasnt been matched by melting ice bergs and ice shelves.

it is when there are no more icebergs and ice shelves left
that we really need to think about , I think that if we were to find a "white reflective" material that we could deliver from the air in aircraft we could offset the meling...

I have seen where some are trying to cover the artic with a reflective material and in their test it went very well but the cost and time for completion of a small area would prove
to make covering the entire artic much to costly and just out of the question.

as for emotions I believe that is the norm in this world , that is what gets things moving in the general public.

like the polar bear picture , if you would have posted a picture of just the ice that the polar bear is resting on , there would have been no emotions stirred up...

humans have emotions and emotions drive us to do things basically.

I would agree that this year water vapor restricted much of the suns influence on melting , but as the earth warms and the seasons change accordingly this will produce more and more ice melt due to longer summers and shorter winters.

I wouldnt worry too much about your $20.00 bet.

I might even say your bet could be payable in less time if there are any methane contributors in the picture !!!





_________________________
3/4 inch of dust build up on the moon in 4.527 billion years,LOL and QM is fantasy science.

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#27856 - 09/25/08 05:56 AM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: paul]
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: paul
....I might even say your bet could be payable in less time if there are any methane contributors in the picture !!!

I think a scary aspect of "tipping points" is that we won't know for sure, until years afterwards, when one has been tripped.

I ran across this Guardian report about ...another newspaper's email???
...whatever.

Arctic 'methane chimneys' raise fears of runaway climate change
Researchers say evidence suggests that the frozen seabed is perforated and is starting to leak methane, but other scientists urge caution

Scientists claim to have discovered evidence for large releases of methane into the atmosphere from frozen seabed stores off the northern coast of Siberia.
...
"As long as the scientists in the Siberian Arctic are not able to report very strong increases in submarine landslides and slope failures, I wouldn't expect that the release into the atmosphere is so severe that it is really very serious at the moment," Schwark added.
...
Örjan Gustafsson of Stockholm University in Sweden told the Independent newspaper in an email from the vessel: "An extensive area of intense methane release was found. At earlier sites we had found elevated levels of dissolved methane.
"Yesterday, for the first time, we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface. These 'methane chimneys' were documented on echo sounder and with seismic [instrument]."
At some locations he said concentrations of the gas were 100 times the background level. These anomalies were documented in the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea, covering several tens of thousands of square kilometres.

Gustafsson added: "The conventional thought has been that the permafrost 'lid' on the sub-sea sediments on the Siberian shelf should cap and hold the massive reservoirs of shallow methane deposits in place.
"The growing evidence for release of methane in this inaccessible region may suggest that the permafrost lid is starting to get perforated and thus leaking methane."
Estimates for the amount of carbon locked up in the hydrates vary from 500 to 5000 gigatonnes....

...from...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/23/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange1
J. Randerson, science correspondent guardian.co.uk, Tuesday September 23 2008 13:52 BST

So maybe there will be some more Arctic updates ...before next year's minimum.
~ wink
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#27866 - 09/25/08 08:22 PM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: samwik]
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
sorry to just repeat this:
Originally Posted By: paul
....I might even say your bet could be payable in less time if there are any methane contributors in the picture !!!

I think a scary aspect of "tipping points" is that we won't know for sure, until years afterwards, when one has been tripped.

I ran across this Guardian report about ...another newspaper's email???
...whatever.

Arctic 'methane chimneys' raise fears of runaway climate change
Researchers say evidence suggests that the frozen seabed is perforated and is starting to leak methane, but other scientists urge caution

Scientists claim to have discovered evidence for large releases of methane into the atmosphere from frozen seabed stores off the northern coast of Siberia.
...
"As long as the scientists in the Siberian Arctic are not able to report very strong increases in submarine landslides and slope failures, I wouldn't expect that the release into the atmosphere is so severe that it is really very serious at the moment," Schwark added.
...
Örjan Gustafsson of Stockholm University in Sweden told the Independent newspaper in an email from the vessel: "An extensive area of intense methane release was found. At earlier sites we had found elevated levels of dissolved methane.
"Yesterday, for the first time, we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface. These 'methane chimneys' were documented on echo sounder and with seismic [instrument]."
At some locations he said concentrations of the gas were 100 times the background level. These anomalies were documented in the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea, covering several tens of thousands of square kilometres.

Gustafsson added: "The conventional thought has been that the permafrost 'lid' on the sub-sea sediments on the Siberian shelf should cap and hold the massive reservoirs of shallow methane deposits in place.
"The growing evidence for release of methane in this inaccessible region may suggest that the permafrost lid is starting to get perforated and thus leaking methane."
Estimates for the amount of carbon locked up in the hydrates vary from 500 to 5000 gigatonnes....

...from...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/23/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange1
J. Randerson, science correspondent guardian.co.uk, Tuesday September 23 2008 13:52 BST

So maybe there will be some more Arctic updates ...before next year's minimum.
~ wink
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#28074 - 10/17/08 07:02 PM Re: Artic Ice Free by 2013 !! [Re: samwik]
paul Offline
Megastar

Registered: 03/21/06
Posts: 4136
Quote:
I think a scary aspect of "tipping points" is that we won't know for sure, until years afterwards, when one has been tripped.


I dont think we have to wait.

I think we are well into a meaningfull tipping point...

I've given this some thought and cannot see a effort or at least a true effort that might reverse the warming.

I see people in OUR near future starving in masses , frozen solid as they sleep , I see large cyclonic activity that devastates large multistate sized areas , its not going to be a slow progressive process as many think , it will be a sudden onslaught of calamity durring the summer and winter months.

it will be quickly progressive until one thing occurs , and that will be a large volcanic action such as a caldera that will throw the earth into a sudden ice age.

the tipping has already occured , we can offset it , but nobody is really trying as far as I can see.

it will take drastic measures and joint efforts globaly to slow the progression , most of all it will require that the burning of fuels is stopped.

stopped...

you know this , mike knows it , many others know it but their profession prevents them from acknowledging it.

or it may be the ridicule that prevents them from acting on it.

its here and its not going away , even if they do find a nice safe hole in the sand somewhere it will find them , sooner or later.









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3/4 inch of dust build up on the moon in 4.527 billion years,LOL and QM is fantasy science.

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