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#23730 - 10/04/07 01:48 AM Raining at the North Pole!
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
It came as quite an shock when I read that it had been Raining at the North Pole!.
To be raining at the North Pole was impossible, unbelievable!!?.

But it was true, having been verified by a group of research scientist, actually at the North Pole, were caught in the rain without their umbrellas.

I had a second shock when I read in the same article, that for the first time in recorded history an small American sailing boat had traversed The North West Passage from Nova Scotia to Alaska, using wind power alone.
The North West Passage has never ever been traversed unless it was by an Ice breaker. Wow, but thats not all.

My third shock came when these same scientists watched with amazement when their thermometers recorded a day temperature high of 22C (70F) during their July expedition at the High Artic camp.

The Scientist involved included Professor Scott Lamoureux, Doctor Walt Meir, US National Snow and ice Data Centre. Davis Carlson, director of International Polar Year, and research scientist, Shari Gearheard, with others.

Guess I'd better let you all read this for yourselves.
'cause you hav'nt heard the last of this
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article3021309.ece



Edited by Mike Kremer (10/04/07 01:53 AM)
Edit Reason: Exclamation
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"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#23734 - 10/04/07 04:04 AM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Mike Kremer]
Canuck Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/16/07
Posts: 203
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

I had a second shock when I read in the same article, that for the first time in recorded history an small American sailing boat had traversed The North West Passage from Nova Scotia to Alaska, using wind power alone.
The North West Passage has never ever been traversed unless it was by an Ice breaker. Wow, but thats not all.


First of all Mike, your link seems to be broken.

More importantly, this statement is simply false. Ellis posted a similar statement a few weeks ago.
Here's my response to Ellis, and it's the same to your post
http://www.scienceagogo.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=23477#Post23477

It's called the "Northwest Passage" for a reason.

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#23736 - 10/04/07 12:14 PM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Canuck]
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
Originally Posted By: Canuck
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

I had a second shock when I read in the same article, that for the first time in recorded history an small American sailing boat had traversed The North West Passage from Nova Scotia to Alaska, using wind power alone.
The North West Passage has never ever been traversed unless it was by an Ice breaker. Wow, but thats not all.


First of all Mike, your link seems to be broken.

More importantly, this statement is simply false. Ellis posted a similar statement a few weeks ago.
Here's my response to Ellis, and it's the same to your post
http://www.scienceagogo.com/forum/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=23477#Post23477

It's called the "Northwest Passage" for a reason.


No, my link dos'nt seem to be broken.....Not this side of the 'pond' anyway.
My suggestion is :- Dont fiddle with your mouse once you have clicked upon my link...and you will be able to read it.
http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article3021309.ece

When you do- You will find that my article places a number of findings into a single article....Notably, the fact that it was raining at the North Pole.....something that had'nt happened or was not noticed by the Scientists, until after Ellis wrote under the heading "The North West Passage".
There is no point in you mentioning that Peary tried to get thru the north west passage in 1902, or how many wooden ships went to an ice grave before that. Old data is not very valuable or even useful when new later data, comes along.

Another words my posting was an update upon the Artic Climate, as per recent findings by various American and Canadian scientists

While I am on 'update' and 'findings'...you have made it apparent that you believe global warming is not due to man, etc.

I suggest you are out on a limb with this one, backing the wrong horse shall we say.

Its of my opinion that for the purposes of local Climate, you should not be using old Data.
Some of the data that you use to back up your claim that climate change is not manmade,- is tens of years old, even hundreds

Climate = Mixing of the elements = atmosphere, gases, wind, pollution, water, cosmic rays, +or- Ions......or whatever you want to add into the mixture.
Its a bit like mixing chemicals up in a Laboratory, once the chemicals have 'changed colour', ...as in titration, it is virtually immpossible to get back to the original formulae.

You might be able to get some colour back, but the overall mix has changed forever. Which is why you must not continue to use old Data.

My suggestion is that you start anew, and use Modern data that goes back prehaps no more than 20 years. Then you will meet a majority of people that will welcome you, and you will be able to at least be at 'one' with them, and sleep better at night?

When the first oil tanker plys the NW passage, enroute to the East, and the tourists come waving their money, "what will poor Robin do then?" (Eighteenth century nursery rhyme)

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"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#23737 - 10/04/07 01:32 PM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Mike Kremer]
ImranCan Offline
Member

Registered: 09/04/07
Posts: 94
Loc: Brunei
Mike
I'm not even sure where to start with a commentary like this ...


Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

Old data is not very valuable or even useful when new later data, comes along.

I suggest you are out on a limb with this one, backing the wrong horse shall we say.

Its of my opinion that for the purposes of local Climate, you should not be using old Data.


Its a common problem with scientists that they always tend to favour the data which supports their position and ignore contradictory data. Climate observations require information on 'trends' so old data is always necessary and it is absurd to ignore it because it doesn't suit you. Thats not science - thats politics.

And if being of a different opinion is 'being out on a limb', then so am I. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having a different opinion. The very reason I got into this debate is because I got fed up with people trying to make me feel bad because I had a different opinion. Its unhealthy in a sceintific debate and its exceptionally unhealthy in a democracy.

Your points on the warm arctic this summer do however have merit, even if we ignore the blatant misinformation and alarmism from a newspaper that should know better (The Independent). It odes appear as though there has been unusual local warming in the Arctic this summer. I would like to know what causes this : my feeling is that it must be due to shifting ocean currents (Gulf stream moving northwards ?) - there is no way that amount of immediate warming and ice melting can occur any other way. Why would the currents shift ? Is it possibly cyclical ?

Any ideas ?

Regards
Imran

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#23747 - 10/05/07 06:17 AM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: ImranCan]
Amaranth Rose II Offline

Superstar

Registered: 12/16/06
Posts: 962
Loc: Southeast Nebraska, USA
Canuck,
I followed Mike's link and found the article, after I had to scan down quite a ways to find it. It is there, though. Perhaps it's your computer?

Amaranth
_________________________
If you don't care for reality, just wait a while; another will be along shortly. --A Rose


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#23756 - 10/07/07 12:41 AM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: ImranCan]
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
Originally Posted By: ImranCan
Mike
I'm not even sure where to start with a commentary like this ...


Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer

Old data is not very valuable or even useful when new later data, comes along.
I suggest you are out on a limb with this one, backing the wrong horse shall we say.
Its of my opinion that for the purposes of local Climate, you should not be using old Data.


Its a common problem with scientists that they always tend to favour the data which supports their position and ignore contradictory data. Climate observations require information on 'trends' so old data is always necessary and it is absurd to ignore it because it doesn't suit you. Thats not science - thats politics.

And if being of a different opinion is 'being out on a limb', then so am I. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having a different opinion. The very reason I got into this debate is because I got fed up with people trying to make me feel bad because I had a different opinion. .....................>

Any ideas ?

Regards
Imran


Hi Imran,
You are right when you state- 'Climate observation depends upon trends. Yes that seems to work when we look at Antartic ice cores and tree rings. etc.
But surely modern Data in the form of actual temp measurements, by satellite, balloon, and seabuoys, are essential when used over the last 50 years?

Right again when you state- There are Scientists who tend to favour the data which supports their position. Occasionaly deliberate falsification has been uncovered, to their shame.

With regard to my quotes:-
"Old data is not very valuable or even useful, when new later data, comes along." and
"Its of my opinion that for the purposes of local Climate, you should not be using old Data"

As I mentioned in my previous post, for the purposes of local Climate, you should not be using old Data. Most of the data used to back climate change, - is tens of years, even hundreds of years old.
It just dos'nt seem logical to me, to include this old data to verify what is happening to the weather today.

Todays arguments as to the why's and wherefor's of our Earths long natural cyclic climatic past, do not seem to gel, when applied to the present day.
So I present an analogy, that may show why we have climate disagreement.

Imagine the Earths natural climate, as a long slow mid-Atlantic roller.
We might be living near the crest, or near the trough of this slow moving wave....I have no interest in what part of the wave we are now living on. i.e (Whether we are in, or out, of a Mini-Ice age, (thats old Data))
But I am interested in present new data, data that goes back no more than say 50yrs, to the present day.

Its my opinion that this modern data is equivalent to a tiny wavelet that is sitting on the surface of this Mid-Altlantic roller. Exactly where, dos'nt matter.
What does matter is that this wavelet is so very small in comparison with the rest of this 'Climatic roller', that it is very difficult to detect.
That any temperature, or other difference this wavelet has, is quickly subjugated, or smothered, by natural climatic forces.

No wonder there are never ending argument as to whether local climatic changes are caused by man or not.
I refuse to take part in this argument any more. Data and events, over the next 5 years should prove my points. I'll wait.
End.

Local Climate = Mixing of the elements = atmosphere, gases, wind, pollution, water, cosmic rays, +or- Ions......or whatever you want to add into the mixture, is like mixing chemicals up in a Laboratory.
Once the chemicals have 'changed colour', ...as in titration, it is virtually impossible to get back to the original formulae, (or Climate).



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"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#23833 - 10/14/07 08:57 PM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Mike Kremer]
Canuck Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/16/07
Posts: 203
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Let me get this right Mike - you're saying we shouldn't be using 'old data'.
Specfically, we shouldn't use previous voyages through the Northwest Passage to say it has been sailable prior to now. We'll just use a recent occurance and say it's the first time in history.

So by your bulletproof logic, when the Chinese make a lunar landing in 2050, they could rightfully claim to have made the first succesful trip to the moon? crazy

I'm with Imran - I don't know where to go with a post such as yours.

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#23855 - 10/15/07 07:40 PM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Canuck]
John M Reynolds Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 08/14/06
Posts: 174
Loc: Canada
The St Roch was a hardy vessel that was not an ice breaker that made it through the Northwest passage (in I think 1943), though it was not a sail boat.

The http://gayandright.blogspot.com/2007/10/why-arctic-sea-ice-is-low.html link has the following quote: "The winds causing this trend in ice reduction were set up by an unusual pattern of atmospheric pressure that began at the beginning of this century," Nghiem said.

Data does not get old unless it is proven incorrect.

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#23916 - 10/18/07 12:52 AM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: John M Reynolds]
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
Originally Posted By: John M Reynolds
The St Roch was a hardy vessel that was not an ice breaker that made it through the Northwest passage (in I think 1943), though it was not a sail boat.

The http://gayandright.blogspot.com/2007/10/why-arctic-sea-ice-is-low.html link has the following quote: "The winds causing this trend in ice reduction were set up by an unusual pattern of atmospheric pressure that began at the beginning of this century," Nghiem said.

Data does not get old unless it is proven incorrect.


No sorry, ....Data can be old and correct. (in its time)
Its when later data, comes along that bears little resemblance to the older data (for whatever *reasons) then the older skewed Data should certainly be discarded and replaced by the new.

And there are no better *reasons for using new Data, than the scores of different Climatic readings taken over the last 15 years. Total readings which must run into thousands, many of which are causing concern.
Apart from that, would suggest that Satellite and Sea Buoy temps datas, are definately new.

If the winds caused a trend in ice reduction by pushing it out to sea as "Gayandright" states . That only verifies the fact that the pack ice must have been extremely thin, recently.

Not like the time the American Nuclear Sub Nautilus, had to be fitted with a special "saw teeth" to enable it to break thru the thick ice when it surfaced at the Geographic North Pole some 50 years ago.
An amazing feat, that I well remember, since I was working on the Radars, up on the 'Canadian Dew line' at the time. Cccccold.
_________________________
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"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#25166 - 03/22/08 04:01 AM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Mike Kremer]
Mike Kremer Offline

Megastar

Registered: 10/16/04
Posts: 1696
Loc: London UK
Originally Posted By: Mike Kremer
It came as quite an shock when I read that it had been Raining at the North Pole!.
To be raining at the North Pole was impossible, unbelievable!!?.

But it was true, having been verified by a group of research scientist, actually at the North Pole, were caught in the rain without their umbrellas.

Now Scientists find it raining in Antartica !!

The story is here:-
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TRAVEL/05/02/antarctica2.chan/index.html

_________________________
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"You will never find a real Human being - Even in a mirror." ....Mike Kremer.



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#25170 - 03/23/08 06:29 AM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Mike Kremer]
Ellis Offline
Megastar

Registered: 01/08/07
Posts: 1490
Loc: Australia
Crikey!

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#25242 - 03/30/08 12:29 PM Re: Raining at the North Pole! [Re: Ellis]
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
well recent "new" data tells that the arctic has never before increased in ice as rapidly as the past few months since readings began in 1979.

Details here: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

Similarly, the world all over currently has 1 million square kilometers of ice more than the norm

Details here:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

so that kinda might change your arguements mike

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