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#17308 - 12/18/06 11:00 AM The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
My trip to New Zealand included a great look at the world heritage Fox and Franz Joseph Glaciers. It was interesting to see how they moved. In general, these glaciers increase in size by about 1.5 meters a day which is huge compared to other parts in the world. This is caused by snowfall and the n?v?, which is at the very top of the glacier or top of the mountain. But the glacier also melts at the terminus, which is the very bottom of the glacier. Depending on how quickly the snow falls up the top and the temperature down the bottom defines if the glacier increased in length or not. Obviously the two factors are highly correlated. There is a 5 year delay in the amount of snow falling at the n?v? and the length of the glacier. E.g. If we had a bumper snow fall this year, it would take 5 years to see the effect of this on the length of the glacier.

Now for a bit of history. Back in the ice age, around 10,000 years ago the glacier actually fed into the Tasman Sea. But since then has been case of gradual decrease. In fact sign posts around show where the glacier was in 1740 and 1840 and today based on rock studies and more recently photographs and explorers diary?s. But since the mid 1980?s the glacier has actually grown in size. In the mid 1970s the glacier was nothing great to look at, and could hardly be seen from the lookout post, but it has grown quite a bit since, in some cases growing by as much as 70cm in a day.

So what does this mean? Well obviously the length of the glacier has a strong relationship with temperature in the region. This means that the glacier was at it?s longest when the ice age was, and hence we were at our coldest (obviously). Since then, we?ve been coming out of an ice age until about the mid 1970?s, where the weather must have got a lot colder.

So this area of New Zealand has therefore been warming up considerably from about 1750 to 1970 and then getting a bit colder since. This goes against the world wide temperature data of an increase in temperature from 1970, and it also shows that the increase in temperature from 1750 to 1970s was not due to CO2.

Of course I don?t have data on NZ temperatures, so my case suggesting temperature increases and decreases in this area is largely an assumption. There might well be other means of why the glaciers increase and decrease in size that has yet to be discovered (human physical contact perhaps?). However, temperature is largely correlated to the size of the glacier, and this suggests to me that we were still coming out the influences of the last ice age, and that two things just aren?t heating up as much as we expect, if at all, in the central-western region of the South Island of New Zealand.

more info here: http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/

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#17315 - 12/18/06 06:54 PM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: JonathanLowe]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Of course they are JLowe ... of course they are. And this fact, noticed by a professional gambler, was somehow missed by all of the scientists in the entire country and by NASA's satellites.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/p1386h/nzealand/nzealand.html#observation
http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/p1386h/nzealand/nzealand.html#modern
http://www.climatechange.govt.nz/resources/info-sheets/changing-climate/a-changing-climate.pdf
http://mfe.resultspage.com/search?p=Q&ts=c2&w=glaciers&Submit=Go

Of course you don't have New Zealand temperatures. Getting that would require investing effort. And analyzing it would require someone with a PhD in climatology.

Your horse is dead ... you can stop beating it.
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DA Morgan

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#17325 - 12/18/06 09:53 PM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
terrytnewzealand Offline
Megastar

Registered: 08/02/06
Posts: 1031
Loc: Whangarei New Zealand
JonathanLowe. I seem to remember replying to this already. Have you put it on another thread as well?

DA. Nice series of links. It's been many years since I last saw the glaciers.


Edited by terrytnewzealand (12/18/06 09:56 PM)

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#17327 - 12/19/06 12:23 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: terrytnewzealand]
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
Hi terry I had forgotten about writing this in another link. lol. Nice links showing exactly what I said Morgan, ohh yes, you also owe me 4 apologies as well due from the other link. I can see that you are still using the method of character assassination as well because you have no leg to stand on.

I'll just wait for your apologies Morgan

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#17329 - 12/19/06 12:27 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: JonathanLowe]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Thanks.

I'd really like to know what JLowe thinks he is accomplishing by posting anecdotal nonsense that conflicts with everything published by NASA, NOAA, CSIRO, and the governments of New Zealand.

I don't care why he failed to complete his PhD ... but this crusade he is on is doomed to failure because nature isn't going to change course to suit his prejudice. Perhaps he laid 6:1 odds on global warming and is now hoping to escape from a bad wager.
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#17335 - 12/19/06 01:16 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
Morgan, I love the way you like to character assasignate because you can't debate against the facts. Here's a fact. That the glaciers of New Zealand have increased in size in the past 30 years. And no this is not disagreeing with anyone. If you even go there, it will show you on nicely printed panels exactly this, as well as photo's at around the 1970's as well as today.

The difference is amazing. It appears that the glaciers are at the moment in a stage of increasing length. Which is great, because they didn't look that great 30 years ago. In fact even your links back this up. This increasing trend has pretty much been the only major increasing trend since the last ice age.

It must be getting colder there in New Zealand.

Still waiting for your apologies by the way...or are you not man enough to admit your wrong doings?

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#17346 - 12/19/06 05:44 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: JonathanLowe]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
JLowe wrote:
"Here's a fact. That the glaciers of New Zealand have increased in size in the past 30 years."

If it is a fact then by all means enlighten us. Where's the link to the reputable science publication the reported this blessed miracle?

Find It For Us
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=%22New+Zealand%22+and+%22glacier%22+and+%2230%25%22&spell=1


Edited by DA Morgan (12/19/06 05:45 AM)
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#17362 - 12/20/06 03:17 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
despite actually being there and seeing the glaciers first hand as well as viewing the photographs that were taken of them....

well the first two articles you mention show an increase in the glaciers from 1980 to 1988 but unfortunetly that's all they show. They've been increasing since then.

Here's a short article about the increase: http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=\ForeignBureaus\archive\200502\FOR20050216a.html

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#17368 - 12/20/06 05:01 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: JonathanLowe]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Is this a joke? CNSNEWS.COM? Is that where you get your science "facts?"

Let me quote the article you reference:
"This week, a company that takes visitors over the popular tourist attraction confirmed ...."

Excuse me while I try to regain my composure from laughing myself off my chair. Your "scientific evidence" comes from a company that takes visitors to a tourist attraction?

Remind me to ask Mickey Mouse for his professional opinion the next time I visit Disney World.
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DA Morgan

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#17374 - 12/20/06 06:07 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
ok here: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/064.htm

note the graph on the right showing the Franz Josef glacier at the very bottom. The Fox Glacier is pysically right next to the Franz and has the same attributes.

Note that most glaciers have been decreasing the last 100-300 years, and glaciers in Norway and NZ have increased over the last 30 years, whilst glaciers in Sweden and France have remained reasonably steady in the last 30.

So was CO2 a big problem for glaciers 300 years ago?

"In a few regions a considerable number of glaciers are currently advancing (e.g., Western Norway, New Zealand). In Norway this is very likely to be due to increases in precipitation owing to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (Section 2.6), and in the Southern Alps of New Zealandand due to wetter conditions with little warming since about 1980"

So not warming in NZ hey?

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#17389 - 12/20/06 06:17 PM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: JonathanLowe]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Here's what you wrote at #17335 - December 18, 2006 08:16 PM
"Here's a fact. That the glaciers of New Zealand have increased in size in the past 30 years."

Do you see anything at the link you referenced that supports your statement? Do you see "30 years" there? Maybe 29? Maybe 31.5?

How long did it take you to find a 5 year old report that doesn't actually support your statement?

Integrity, it would seem, would demand you acknowledge that when you wrote your original statement you hadn't a single reference upon which you based it. You just made it up like you make up your other "facts."
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DA Morgan

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#17400 - 12/21/06 01:21 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
well actually when I wrote this initial statement it was based on the information boards that I was reading at the actual glaciers when I visited them. There were photo's and all sorts of information based on their increase and decrease over time. And if you look at the graph on the link provided it shows a 1.5km increase in length over the years 1975 to 2000.

It has continued to grow since then, however it doesn't look like (or I can't find) a recent journal article of the glaciers has existed since.

Either way, my case is proven.

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#17404 - 12/21/06 02:42 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: JonathanLowe]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
JLowe wrote:
"The Fox Glacier is pysically right next to the Franz and has the same attributes."

My cat is right next to the sofa. They do not have the same attributes. You call this science?
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DA Morgan

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#17408 - 12/21/06 01:28 PM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
Originally Posted By: DA Morgan
JLowe wrote:
"The Fox Glacier is pysically right next to the Franz and has the same attributes."

My cat is right next to the sofa. They do not have the same attributes. You call this science?


is that all you have Morgan? Is that seriouslly all you have?
The two glaciers are a stones throw away from each other at the neve, and then go down two different vally's that are around, hmm, guessing about 10-15km apart at the terminus.

When the fox retreats, so does the Franz, when the Franz increases, do does the Fox. They both share the same temperature at the terminus and the same amount of snow at the neve.

This, if you knew a bit about the glaciers in question, is common knowledge.

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#17417 - 12/21/06 10:10 PM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: JonathanLowe]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
JLowe wrote:
"The two glaciers are a stones throw away from each other"

And based on physical proximity you extend something observed on one to the other. Each of the Hawaiian Islands is in close proximity to the other islands. Do they have the same climate?
Do you know how far one has to go in Death Valley California to move from a summer climate of 90 degrees Farenheit to snow?

I'll answer the last question for you ... I've personally thrown snowballs into Death Valley.

You asked in another thread if I was willing to discuss science ... I am. Are you willing to do the same? "stones throw away" isn't science. And painting the target after shooting the arrow is not science either.
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DA Morgan

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#17420 - 12/22/06 02:59 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
Wolfman Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 04/17/06
Posts: 264
Loc: Pago Pago, American Samoa
Don't get excited,DA, I deal with Kiwis almost every day, and I used to live in Oz. They all suffer from some sort of Inferiority Complex, pay them no mind. It comes from living in an isolated insignificant part of the World.
As for the "Mighty Glaciers of NZ" growing, sure, maybe thay are. We see abherent examples all the time. BTW, which is bigger, NZ or Vancouver Island?

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#17426 - 12/22/06 06:27 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: Wolfman]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Good question:

Vancouver Island - Size: 947,800 square kilometres (365,974 square miles)

New Zealand - North 115,000 square kilometres (44,000 square miles). South 151,000 square kilometres (58,300 square miles). Stewart Island 1700 square kilometres (656 square miles) is located immediately south of the South Island.

Amazing. I never, ever, would have guessed it. Wow! That just knocks me over.

The rest of your advice is good too. I just find it appalling to let such unsupported, and unsupportable, statements stand uncontested. But in the spirit of the season I'll allow that maybe they are all suffering the effects of blood rushing to their heads because, as we know, they are all standing upside down. <g>
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DA Morgan

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#17447 - 12/23/06 09:08 AM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
terrytnewzealand Offline
Megastar

Registered: 08/02/06
Posts: 1031
Loc: Whangarei New Zealand
Hang on guys. I'm pretty sure Jonathan is from Oz.

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#17451 - 12/23/06 06:08 PM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: terrytnewzealand]
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
That's his claim and so far John Howard has not claimed otherwise.
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DA Morgan

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#17455 - 12/23/06 09:10 PM Re: The Glaciers are growing in New Zealand [Re: DA Morgan]
terrytnewzealand Offline
Megastar

Registered: 08/02/06
Posts: 1031
Loc: Whangarei New Zealand
Ah. John Howard. And you think you guys have problems?

From JonathanLowe's post a while back re glaciers in NZ:

"We've had a couple of years of very good snowfalls in winter, and we've had a really unusually cold summer -- about the coldest in New Zealand for 60 years, " he said. "Those things have all come together to cause the glacier to push forward.

And:

"Beyond that, there's also a downstream effect. If you have heavy snowfalls one year, you're likely to get increased volumes of ice coming down the glacier three-to-five years later."

Chris De Freitas, who passes comment in the article, is a well-known global warming sceptic here.

There was good snowfall this winter and we're having a cold spell at the moment so I expaect the glaciers will expand again in a few years time.

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