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#16873 - 10/29/06 11:54 AM Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
My website:

http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/

sets out to prove that in Australia, number and magnitude of cyclones are not related to global warming, Australia?s current drought has nothing to do with global warming, and shortly on my webpage I will prove that Australia?s temperatures have in fact not increased at all in the last 20-150 years.

This is by analyzing data as provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Cheers
Jonathan Lowe

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#16874 - 10/29/06 02:22 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
soilguy Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 09/28/05
Posts: 414
Loc: North Carolina
Why not present your argument here, rather than direct us to your blog?
_________________________
When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross."
--S. Lewis

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#16875 - 10/29/06 06:37 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
Okay, I'll bite.
But first, your two references to global warming makes it sound as if it is established fact. If global warming exists, how does Australia remain "not related to" the rest of the global climate?
Is it because Australia is in the southern hemisphere?
Would re-phrasing your post clear up my questions?

Thanks smile
~samantics
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#16876 - 10/29/06 07:49 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Jonathan I hate to break this to you but Australia is part of the planet earth. You are part of our climate and the rules of physics and chemistry don't change just because you call it Oz.

You may well be correct that nothing has changed in some period of time. You may well be correct that your cyclones are not related to effects we see elsewhere. But to assume that your weather is somehow isolated and immune is just plain ludicrous.
_________________________
DA Morgan

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#16877 - 10/29/06 10:13 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
dehammer Offline
Megastar

Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 1089
thats the point da. if it has not changed there, then how could it have changed so much elsewhere.
_________________________
the more man learns, the more he realises, he really does not know anything.

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#16878 - 10/30/06 01:39 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Unlike you I considered by possibility that Jonathan was incorrect so I checked out what he had independently.

He is not correct. He is as objective as you are. Which, I guess, is why you are so ready to believe what he wrote.

You really must stop trusting what you agree with and distrusting that with which you do not agree. I am a cynic. I trust little and verify a much.

If you will use google.com you will find that the Australian government does not agree with Mr. Lowe. And neither do the results of research done by non-governmental organizations both in Oz and elsewhere.
_________________________
DA Morgan

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#16879 - 10/30/06 03:21 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
RicS Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/26/06
Posts: 310
Loc: Sydney, Australia
Dear Mr Morgan,

Inappropriate Comments in Post - Please Remove and this Post will Likewise be Removed

Mr Morgan, the post of 29 Oct at 20:39 carries person insults against two fellow members of this site. Argue Mr Lowe is not correct as much as you want. Leave personal opnions as to his character out of it, please. This type of comment is making it much harder to have any sort of discussion on this topic at all.

Regards


Richard
_________________________
Sane=fits in. Unreasonable=world needs to fit to him. All Progress requires unreasonableness

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#16880 - 10/30/06 03:27 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
RicS Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/26/06
Posts: 310
Loc: Sydney, Australia
G'day all,

Australian Weather Station Data - Reliability Very High

I too have extensive data for Australia. The weather stations of Australia are perhaps the most accurate over time in the entire world. There has been consistent government, no wars on our shores (except Darwin and other very limited incursions), and a form of government that does not divide such things as weather into numerous little bureaucratic kingdoms.

Australian Met Burea Temperature Data Analysis Conforms to Global Warming General Trends

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology clearly states that Australia's climate has changed and that temperatures have increased, especially in the past 30 years or so. As best as I can tell, the satellite data does not agree with this. I have not yet managed to look at the data in depth to see whether the raw data agrees. However, Mr Lowe says that he has done so and it will be interesting to see what he has come up with.

Discussions Relating to Mr Lowe's Statistics - What Refute's It?

Dan, what did you check out independently? That sort of statement is self serving and frankly a way of demonstrating superiority over the person that you disagree with, unless you are willing to say what you have checked out. Thus far Mr Lowe has concentrated on cyclones and precipitation. Cyclones (different word for hurricanes but the same type of severe weather system) are well studied in Australia and I don't think I've seen any research that disagrees with Mr Lowe's assessment. I've seen some other research that shows that there has been a general decrease in cyclones and typhoons (the Asian word for the same weather pattern) throughout the Pacific and very little in dispute of this.

So what research is available that shows Mr Lowe?s analysis of Australian cyclones is faulty, or is there something in the information Mr Lowe provided that is questionable or deserving of discussion? The same question can be asked concerning precipitation.

Thread Heading

So what do you not agree with that Mr Lowe has said thus far? He hasn't yet put any case in relation to temperature data, only that he will. In that respect, I do believe the title of the thread is misleading. Mr Lowe has not provided anything that supports this, yet and so the title may have been more appropriately something to do with cyclones, precipitation or both.

Discussion Seems to be Confined to Australian Statistics

As to world effects, Mr Lowe, hasn't mentioned this at all. As to whether his initial post suggests that global warming is a fact or not, Mr Lowe is best suited to answer that but, it does seem to me, he is attempting to point out that Australia's weather conditions do not relate to global warming, not that there is definitely global warming but Australia isn't a part of it.

At least this post is about the science of some aspect of climate studies, and that I applaud.


Regards


Richard
_________________________
Sane=fits in. Unreasonable=world needs to fit to him. All Progress requires unreasonableness

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#16881 - 10/30/06 07:24 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
samwik Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/10/06
Posts: 1164
Loc: Colorado
??to be Confined to Australian Statistics? ?RicS

I?m still gonna wait for Mr. Lowe to re-phrase, but I think I see your point that analysis can be ?confined to,? or limited to a region without addressing, or irrespective of, a larger global system.

We?ll see?.
If I don?t hear back, I guess I could take a look anyway. smile

~Samwik
_________________________
Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.

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#16882 - 10/30/06 11:52 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
anyman Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 12/18/04
Posts: 134
Ric,

lighten up, guy...some of us have been listening to dano's jazz for years (he came to this board in late '98) and that of others as well...no one has been overly harmed

he even makes reasonable posts and comments from time to time from which we all learn a little something

he is not alone, there are many here that *attack* the person rather than the content of their post(s)...and i don't think that you will find a board worth it's salt anywhere on the net that doesn't have the same stuff interlaced throughout the topics

i suspect that for whatever reason (which doesn't make it *okay,* just kind of get caught up in the moment :-), i too am occasionally guilty of the same

guys like dano provide some interesting, worthwhile content and lots of entertainment value (not to mention plenty of lampoonable gaffes :-)

you have provided lots of great stuff in regard to climatology, and you're right, dano, et al have not done much to refute your points...but the whining is as distracting or more so than the adhom jazz

the board ain't broke...don't try to fix it

and keep on posting the good stuff that you do...we likes it :-)

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#16883 - 10/30/06 12:27 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
RicS Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/26/06
Posts: 310
Loc: Sydney, Australia
G'day anyman,

Thanks for your post and to a certain extent I agree with you. Dan Morgan often provides very good posts. But right now Climate Change or Global Warming threads deterorate very quickly and have little worth.

This thread is a good example. Mr Lowe, posts his opinions, a fair amount of statistics (at least on his blog which is easily accessible because of the link) but aside from the question as to whether his comments relate to the world's global warming, there was no science discussed at all in the rest of the post. But not a single post on this thread (sadly including mine) actually discusses the information provided. So what is the point?

Even the God and Science post is more on topic than pretty much any global warming thread.

"The board ain't broke...don't try to fix it" I disagree. When it comes to climate related posts, they may start out with some very good topics worth discussing and sometimes they'll even get one or two reply posts that do discuss it but that to me isn't that nothing is "broke". I would, however, agree that overall the board is not broke.

And if you want me to keep posting "the good stuff that you do", my frustration level has to come down a fair bit. Mr Lowe's first post hasn't attracted any science at all. What is the change of Mr Lowe continuing to post here in those circumstances, or all those that read rather than post, contininuing to read such threads?

Please remember that what one person finds amusing, another might find offensive, and if the percieved offence is not simply being thin skinned, then that can discourage interaction. Me, I'm not thin skinned. But I am on on this site to learn or to discuss what interests me. If others can learn from what I'm able to contribute then I'm a really happy little bunny and the current threads are getting nowhere.


Regards


Richard
_________________________
Sane=fits in. Unreasonable=world needs to fit to him. All Progress requires unreasonableness

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#16884 - 10/30/06 01:21 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
anyman Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 12/18/04
Posts: 134
Quote:
Dan Morgan often provides very good posts.
whoa...*often* is a little overboard, but you're surely entitled to an opinion (as am i :-)

i suspect that jon was probably not planning on spending a lot of time here, but rather is busy posting his blogsite on other boards as well, which is fine...he posted some relevant info for us to review, no foul there

just in case, though...jonlowe, we would hear more of what you have to say...on this or any other matter

welcome to the board

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#16885 - 10/30/06 05:06 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
Anyone want to attack this with fact rather than posturing is welcome to do so.

http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/standard/ps27l,,.html

For those not familiar ... CSIRO, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, is Australia's national science agency and one of the largest and most diverse research agencies in the world.

And a far more credible source of information than is some guys blog.

Why Ric ... would you think it worth posting comments about Australian weather station data and not providing the links for someone to verify the veracity of your post? Could it be that you are just making it all up? That is certainly my impression.
_________________________
DA Morgan

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#16886 - 10/30/06 06:13 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
anyman Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 12/18/04
Posts: 134
dano...there are papers available through your link but your link takes us to a self proclaimed authoritative, politically slanted, politically funded, funding generating, hype page

did you read any of the studies available here

if so, which is it that you suggest supports your view

your link provides no data at all

at least jonlowes blogsite provides some

i think you're making it up, you went there and didn't read a thing past the first para or two on your linked page

unless of course, you posted the wrong link :-)

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#16887 - 10/30/06 10:40 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
anyman wrote:
"dano...there are papers available through your link but your link takes us to a self proclaimed authoritative, politically slanted, politically funded, funding generating, hype page"

Learn what CSIRO is. Is it one of the most highly respect science research organizations on the planet. It is the equivalent to the US National Science Foundation.

Do you only believe that which agrees with your preconceived notions?
_________________________
DA Morgan

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#16888 - 10/30/06 10:59 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
RicS Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/26/06
Posts: 310
Loc: Sydney, Australia
G'day all,

Ah the CSIRO. This fine organisation, at Dan Morgan is quite right about it being a highly regarded organisation. He just isn't Australian and so doesn't also know that it has been accussed of political bias by both our main political parties.

I have mentioned the CSIRO before, when it was caught in an appalling misuse of data. It produced a brochure declaring that Australia was ideally placed to determine rising sea levels (true) and that the results of long term sea level monitoring was disturbing and proved global warming. Pity the brochure used only two locations, Sydney and Fremantle. Most people would know where Sydney is but less would know about Fremantle (perhaps if they followed the America's Cup they might remember). But it is at the mouth of the river on which Perth sits. So it was a bit like picking Miami and Los Angeles. Opposite sides of Australia.

The trouble is the long term sea level monitoring is not done by CSIRO at all but another government agency. They have 23 long term monitoring agencies around Australia. Fremantle was perfect to use because it showed a marked sea level increase. Sydney showed a lesser increase but still an increase. Pity that all 23 stations showed nothing of the sort. They showed a slight drop in sea level. Now Australia is bounded by three very important and very large oceans. If any single country could tell whether the world sea level had changed, Australia has a good chance of doing so. It might be that the sea level changes occur more in the Northern Hemisphere of course, but this isn't really about sea level changes throughout the world but rather the politicalisation of an esteamed organisation, the CSIRO.

They were wrong and it appears they deliberately misled the public in the use of selective data. That isn't what I would call the acts that "one of the most highly respect [sic] science research organizations on the planet" should do.

Just like NASA, the CSIRO is very pro-global warming. Why? I thought that the "Kicking Sacret Cow" book by Mr Hogan would help with this but it didn't all that much. His theory is interesting but he doesn't seem to back it up with much other than logic. Good logic, I must admit but not definitive, at least in my mind.

And anyman was quite right. CSIRO does show its bias very well by the link that Mr Morgan provides. It does read like hype. It is another organisation that bites the hand that feeds it. It seems that it is rather left leaning in its political outlook even though the current conservative government has provided more fundings to the sciences. But criticsm does often seem to have a political tinge to it. The same could be said for NASA, despite the US conservative governmet spending more on scientific research than the previous Democratic regime even suggested was a possibility.

I'm not suggesting that the conservtive governments should be applauded or that this should turn into a political discussion but the reasons for such organisation behaving the way they do will most likely fascinate political scientists, historians and science historians for a very long time to come.

Regards


Richard
_________________________
Sane=fits in. Unreasonable=world needs to fit to him. All Progress requires unreasonableness

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#16889 - 10/31/06 12:00 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
anyman Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 12/18/04
Posts: 134
Quote:
Learn what CSIRO is. Is it one of the most highly respect science research organizations on the planet. It is the equivalent to the US National Science Foundation.

Do you only believe that which agrees with your preconceived notions?
i am very familiar with CSIRO, i have been to their site on many occasions

oooooooouu, the NSF...wowsers

rest yer neck, guy

i am familiar with both orgs having been to both sites many times

i too agree that they are respected (sometimes overly so, they are certainly far from absolute authorities), i respect them as well, to a point (i fear i don't hold them in the same reverent awe that you do :-), and agree that they have some very worthwhile content

but the fact still remains, that the specific page you linked to is a political/global warming fundraising/warm fuzzy propaganda page :-)

now give us the specific link(s) to the paper(s)/study(s) that that are housed at that site or linked to via that site, that you would like us to consider, and we will gladly do so

in answer to your Q above...

do i ONLY believe that which agrees with my preconceptions

no, i'm a skeptic

do i believe my preconceptions...sure to a point, as does every scientist on the planet :-)

but at least i try to keep an open mind...and i continue to stay current with many sides of the debate on any given issue that i am interested in

are you suggesting that you are in any way objective on any of this stuff

my views are rarely if ever blindly held...they are generally evidenced...and more often than not, based on the best available evidence

again, we mostly don't differ on the evidence...the evidence is the evidence is the evidence...and most of us that know how to get to whatever evidence is available, wherever it is available, have access to the evidence

you don't own the evidence...we all have the same evidence...what you own is your interpretation of the evidence or your belief in the interpretations of others

once again, we mostly differ on our interpretations of the evidence

now show us your linky, so we can consider the evidence you suggest supports your view :-)

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#16890 - 10/31/06 05:14 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
DA Morgan Offline
Megastar

Registered: 10/17/04
Posts: 4136
Loc: Seattle, WA
RicS wrote:
"so doesn't also know that it has been accussed of political bias by both our main political parties."

Actually Ric ... the definition of unbiased is that BOTH parties accused it of bias. If only one did I might be inclined to agree with you.

But I actually have more than a passing knowledge of Oz and of CSIRO and if you are willing to believe a blogger, and not your premier research organization, then you might as well pack your bags and move to America: Maybe Texas.
_________________________
DA Morgan

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#16891 - 10/31/06 06:21 AM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
RicS Offline
Senior Member

Registered: 03/26/06
Posts: 310
Loc: Sydney, Australia
Mr Morgan,

Once again the climate thread has devolved into an argument about individual's and their relative "worth" or reliability. What happened to arguing science. Instead of sticking up for the CSIRO, how about discussing the science that started this thread. Attacking the poster and defending an organisation might be a slightly interesting diversion but where's the science.

Is it really so hard to actually discuss the science raised?

Your statement implies that you believe unquestionally in anything produced by "quality" organisations. The blogger to which you refer is backing his opinion with an analysis of data. Data freely available and easily checked. Perhaps, once again, you would like to tell us just where this "blogger" has gone wrong with his analysis or where he has misinterpreted the data. And just how does "blogger" become a derogatory term? Some very big scandals in the US have been blown by bloggers and similar Internet information disseminators where the traditional press have either not been able to obtain the information or have been unwilling to print it, at least until someone one the Internet did it first. I wouldn't think it a bad thing. But at the same time I wouldn't suggest anyone accept the opinion of a blogger simply because it is written either.

Otherwise, his clearly laid out arguments that Australia has not had anything unusual in the frequency of cyclones nor droughts should rightly stand. By the way, CSIRO says that global warming may cause Australia to suffer more severe droughts but I do not believe it is currently suggesting this drought is a result of global warming.

And with respect to CSIRO, perhaps you would like to comment on its sea level global warming "proof". Obviously such an august organisation must have the information right and I am blatantly wrong. How about you show everyone why you support organisations such as the CSIRO in such absolute terms and just where I am blatantly wrong.

So that now gives you three tasks that you will choose to ignore. Drought, sea levels and cyclones for Australia. News articles, press releases or opinion pieces even from CSIRO will not cut it. You can use your own mind and set out Mr Lowe's and my faults, and support CSIRO or perhaps refer us to research that suggests the information is wrong.

And both political parties accussed the CSIRO of being biased in the same direction. It was not that the conservative party said that CSIRO was left wing and the Labor Party (sort of like the US democrats) said CSIRO where right ring. They both accussed the CSIRO of a similar bias.

Personally, I am of the view that simply because one or another party accusses an organisation of bias does not mean all that much. It is when the newspapers present the arguments and the bias really does seem to be inherent or simple observation of the organisation's actions support the allegation that I personally suspect that there may really be bias.

I certainly would not consider an organisation that both sides attack as being biased means that they are unbiased. It could mean that or it could mean that the bias is institutional or it could mean that there is even a bias against whoever is currently in power. If you define a lack of bias as being accussed of bias by a balanced number of parties, all that suggests is you take a rather simplistic view of the world. It certainly is not how I would suggest that bias be determined.


Regards


Richard
_________________________
Sane=fits in. Unreasonable=world needs to fit to him. All Progress requires unreasonableness

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#16892 - 10/31/06 12:57 PM Re: Australia hasn't even warmed up: stats prove it
JonathanLowe Offline
Member

Registered: 10/29/06
Posts: 87
Loc: Melbourne
Interesting conversation here guys, and obviously I'm happy to lend my opinion. But firstly, I am happy for people to disagree with me and to agree, that after all is the key to scientific evolution. However, data does not lie, and my board ? amonst some of the more comical points, is mainly an analysis of the data. To be honest, I was suspect of the fact that I wasn't sure that global warming was human caused. I was on the belief that the world was warming up, but that was it. Being a statistician I decided to test this. I bought all the data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to do some analysis.

I intended to test whether the increase in temperatures of late was due to what people call Urban Living, or the Big Island Effect. Eg, was the temperature increase only due to denser populations or is there in fact a temperature increase. What I found was the the Urban Living effect (there are so many names for this!) was actually quite minimal (I shall post on this in the future). But what I also found was amazing, in that I found that Australia was by no means heating up at all over the past 150 years. I don?t want to give all my results at the moment, and yes, I have done a lot of analysis on temperature data, all of which is not yet on my site ? but my initial analysis suggests that there is very limited evidence of Australia heating up. I have tested maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, temperatures at certain times of the day (eg 9am, 3pm etc.), temperatures by state, by region, by rural/city etc. etc. Without giving too much away at the moment, I shall say that there is ample evidence to prove that global warming has not touched Australia in any great deal.

I can?t say of course what effect this has on the globe. One would expect global warming to be world wide, however, I don?t have access to world wide data (although this is something I intend on investigating in).

But as I said, I encourage negative and positive feedback as well as progressive discussion on the findings I?ve made, and the one?s I will. Data does not lie.

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