Dear Uncle Al:
Your logic and math are impeccable, However you seem to ignore the macro energy equation.
All fossil and nuke fuels ultimately add to the heat load of the biosphere while most of the solar / wind / thermal conversion technologies (except geothermal) recycle solar energy instead of releasing sequestered solar energy. This is the goal and definition of sustainability, not over loading the dynamic equilibrium of the biosphere.
At least you seem not to take account of this, and I feel you dismiss the rising curve of increasing efficiency for PV, direct solar to hydrogen, wind and thermal conversion to electricity.
The point is right now I could pay $20 K for a 12% efficient PV array to end my electric bill, in effect prepaying my electric bill for twenty years. If the nano developments in PV's, or direct thermal/electric or photoelectrochemical direct conversion to H2, can double the current efficiency while cutting the price in half, then we are talking $5,000 to be bill free.
Hydrogen Solar sent me their current Tandum Cell numbers @ 10.2% efficiency: $1.50/LB for H2
And they say that a theoretical efficiency of 35% is possible, and a 22% efficiency is realistically achievable, i.e.,... $0.75/LB of H2 which equals $0.049/KWhr equivalent. From what I understand of the direct solar to hydrogen fabrication technology, it is a much greener process, and cheaper that silicon based PVs.
I also found some tech-specs for the suncone, They claim a 50 MW array will produce at $. 046/KWhr !! This is the lowest costs I've seen for solar technology near commercial release.
Sustainable Resources, Inc. - The Suncone Solar Power Generator
http://www.sriglobal.org/suncone_intro.html And the nano-dot approach to PVs also promises full spectrum conversion efficiencies along with clean production processes. ( UB News Services-solar nano-dots
http://www.buffalo.edu/news/fast-ex...rticle=75000009 So I'm thinking in kW not MW. If Bio or Solar , etc., can deliver at these prices, my roof will become a fraction of your 60 square miles, and my septic tank will become a bioreactor and I'll actually start using my garbage disposal to help fuel my car not using any of your 1000 square miles.
Another big plus is decentralization. Distributed power networks are inherently more stable than MW based systems. The flywheel technology that Beacon Power has installed for New York and California http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060301:MTFH76507_2006-03-01_20-54-57_N01399291&type=comktNews&rpc=44 Also contributes to the advantages of both distributed and centralized power sources. All the while adjusting to near perfectly conditioned power, and protecting from threats like this:
According to NASA and the National Science Foundation, the next 11-year sunspot cycle could be up to 50 percent stronger than the present one. That cycle will begin in late-2007/early-2008 and peak around 2012. The phenomenon is a big deal because it can disrupt satellites and knock out power grids. The details are in a story by the Los Angeles Times.
Welch's is buying the H2 Bug Farts:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060313/20060313005750.html?.v=1 SHARON, Pa., Mar 13, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- NanoLogix, Inc. (Pink Sheets:NNLX) announced today that the Company has completed the construction of its first commercial hydrogen bioreactor facility at a Welch's Food plant in North East, Pennsylvania. The company also announced that the facility will begin hydrogen generation from Welch's waste organic matter on or about the first of April 2006.
Also in reply to your Stats:
The surface area of the sphere at the Earth's orbital radius is 1.81 E16.
The surface area of this sphere intersected by the Earth is 2.01 E08
The portion of the sun's output interesected by the Earth is 1.11 E-08
The sun converts 4 billion tons of mass to energy per second
In one year it converts 1.46 E12 tons
The Earth intercepts the energy of 1.46 E12 x 1.11 E-08 converted tons: 1.62 E04
The amount of this incident energy required to meet US energy needs is 0.007%.
Even if I am out somewhere by a factor of 100, then the needs would be met by less than 0.1% of the energy falling on the Earth
