G'day all,

The trouble with climate models is that no one has been able to work out how to create one with any accuracy. They closely equate to weather forcasts. With a great deal of technology you can get weather forcasts for temperate climate about 80% accurate out three days. World average climate models have not yet been able to provide accuracy greater than chance even one year out. Eventually they will. Eventually a great deal of information will be available and will be fed in correctly but as far as I can see that is still years away.

The simplest question in this debate you can ask is "Show me any global climate model that, without correction or tweeking or the like, has been accurate for three years in its predictions, or even two years. If you cannot then the model is not of any use except to tell you perhaps where you have gone wrong."

It is these type of logically sound simple questions that can show up scientific research that often is cloaked in considerable complexity in the language usage or mathamatics for what they are. Guesswork wrapped up to look like research or worse actual reasonable assumptions as to what might happen.

And I still have a real problem with 2007 being a near record year. According to what data? It certainly did not occur at a time that the solar output was at a cyclic minimum nor when there was a cool phase in the Pacific Oscillation. An El Nino was in full effect for part of 2007, petering out in about the end of July and solar activity dropped dramatically in October 2007 but was pretty high for the rest of the year. So it certainly could have been close to a record based on what happened for about eight months of the period and it is the northern springs and summers that have the greater effect on the average for the year. But I still find it hard to work out why 2007 is considered to be such a hot year when the data just doesn't seem to bear this out.


Regards


Richard


Sane=fits in. Unreasonable=world needs to fit to him. All Progress requires unreasonableness