Chris,
I think Imran stated that it looked like the recent trend (even excluding 98) had definitely changed, and instead of increasing, had flattened out.
And that NASA press release you linked to - was that before or after they noticed thier mistake which resulted in all US temperatures being shifted upwards by 0.15 degrees?
At any rate - I'm interested to hear you say "the CO2 effect is largely basic physics". I've done a fair amount of research into looking at exactly how a doubling of CO2 can give you a 3 degree rise, and simply can't find anything that describes from first principles the thermodynamic processes that can lead to the temperature increase.
I hear musings about how the absorption band of CO2 will increase at higher concentrations of CO2. This is obviously necessary for AGW to be correct, since extinction is already reached for the CO2 absorption band under pre-existing CO2 levels. But I don't have the appropriate background in physics to understand how the spectral properties of an molecule can change with it's concentration.
If you have any unbiased reference that explains from a first principles thermodynamics view, how a doubling of CO2 can lead to a 3 degree rise (I realize there are positive feedbacks included in that 3 degree rise), it would be appreciated.
One last point on your quote
"We know the troposphere and surface are warming"
I agree with you, but isn't a primary facet of AGW theory that the upper troposphere will warm faster than the lower troposphere? Recent (and accurate )satellite measurements have found the upper troposphere to be warming at a smaller rate than the lower troposphere (
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#msu_amsu_time_series). This suggests there is some other process in play which is warming the lower troposphere.
Let's not even bring up the differences between the lower troposphere temperature trends determined by satellites and the temperature record from surface stations.
Welcome to the forum though - it is appreciated to have somebody to discuss things with (not yell, scream or hurl obscenities at, but discuss), who seems to be well versed in the subject.
