Science a GoGo's Home Page Forums General Discussion Climate Change Forum New statistical analysis confirms human role in cl

The main question is how much of that 15 degrees K is caused by water vapor and natural CO2 versus man made CO2. To look at it another way, the different gases in the atmosphere at any given instant are holding that much energy, which in turn causes a certain amount temperature increase. You cannot only consider the radiative part of the equation when trying to figure out how much each gas contributes to the total of 15 K. There are also all those water molecules that are holding energy and are “excited” and are exchanging energy back and fourth by collision as the air mass they are in moves about. This includes the water in the clouds as well as the water vapor in the air below the clouds. Clouds slow down convection, this causes the air mass below to slow down the escape of energy back into space and therefore increase the greenhouse effect. This is separate from the radiative calculations. I’ll leave it up to those with more physics experience and education to calculate all that.

There are also questions about density that need to be answered. Saying that CO2 is 383 ppm can be misleading. CO2 may be 380 ppm in a cubic meter of air that is much more dense at the surface than say at 18,000 feet, but the total number of molecules will be much less than at 18,000 feet, while it is still 380ppm.

That said I would also mention that many of the IPCC calculations are made using computer models that still need work. Of course there is another problem that has arisen in the past two months, the temperature stations. AGW supporters have pointed to the results of the temperature stations to confirm the calculations made by their computer models. Now we have learned that these stations have many problems that have resulted in warm biases.

Some people might say that I am jumping to conclusions when I say that the surface temperature record is invalid but they do not know what I know. To date, much of the discussion on the temperature stations has focused on blacktop, air conditioners, roofs, burn barrels and etc. Anthony Watts and his volunteers at Surfacestations.org noticed that humans are moving closer to the temperature stations and that the temperature stations are moving closer to humans. Anthony is also conducting experiments on weather or not the paint is causing a warm bias. But what has not been discussed much is the problem of the wind and how there needs to be a good distance from buildings and trees to ensure proper mixing. Otherwise the thermometer just sits there and cooks. This brings about another problem that KBSF volunteers have learned; the biological problem. It seems that wasps like to build their nests in these instruments. Also, after the instruments are installed, trees and bushes often grow around the stations causing problems with the wind.

Not only has KBSF pretty much surveyed every active station in New England, we have also spoken to some of the guys that work for NWS who actually install and calibrate the temperature stations. These guys have a lot to offer. They all say they do the best they can with what they have. They are limited by government budgets. They have to compromise with the owners of the properties where the stations are located so stations are often moved closer to structures for “convenience.” They talk about the constant changing of equipment and locations. When a property is sold and the new owner does not want to take part in the program, they have to find a new location in the neighborhood or close the historical station. They confirm that the problem is widespread. I understand that NWS personnel should maintain the instruments once or twice a year and that there is a record of each visit to the site. I am sure that these guys and their records will eventually be given more consideration by the scientists who publish surface temperature records. But what is most painfully obvious is that these stations are there to record the weather and not make the kind of scientific observations that are expected when studying climate. No one cares if the temperature that day will be 73 F or 74.5 F, but it makes a difference when the amount of global warming over 100 years is less than that amount.