I sure can't argue with anything you've said above (except I don't know anything about Britney). The one thing that strikes me is something that I've been wondering about. As you say, "...but throw in the unknowns ...and it becomes beyond our ability to fathom." -DA
This is probably true for most of the planetary systems that contribute to the climate (yes, & extra-planetary forces too). I wonder if there is even an assessment of how much we "know" about certain systems such as the ocean, atmosphere, sun, and clouds. I do recall someone saying that clouds represented one of the least understood aspects of climate (there's an assessment).

~samwik

Pyrolysis creates reduced carbon! ...Time for the next step in our evolutionary symbiosis with fire.