ok a few things:
DA Morgan - I do know about Monte Carlo Simulation. I actually use Monte Carlo Simulations in my work all the time, almost every day. I studied them in one of my 8-9 years at university studying statistics and the analysis of data. I am aware of its benefits. And I am also aware of when it should be used. One time is when predicting for example. Which of course I am not trying to do at all.
Whilst Count Iblis II, did not answer my question about his statistical credentials, monte carlo is not the best method to determine trend analysis. Time series analysis, what is was made for, is simply better. Monte Carlo can be used to create error bars (side note - error bars are something that a lot of non-statisticians use for some reason), but the practicle use of it is limited unless you want to predict.
Monte Carlo is based on the data that you currently have, and hence any simulation is a random representation of the data you have at current. Hence an analysis of the data that you curently have is what we are after. You can use Monte Carlo methods to predict, based on the data that you have, what will happened in the future. I'm all good with that, and it's something that I might do. But at the moment, I am just analysing the data that I currently have.
