Because if you try to apply the theory to actual events you find it is way out. Do you agree that in a lottery where there are six balls out of forty-nine drawn according to the probability theory all have a one in 49 chance of coming. However after the first ball is drawn, it cannot come again, therefore the next probabilty becomes one in forty-eight, after the next one in forty-seven and so proceed ad infinitum. You even admitted when you worked on the three grannies that the probability changed if the grannies wanted to leave before 2 pm. That is the problem there are two many ifs and buts!

How many theories have been challenged and proven wrong. One day you'll see many of these proved wrong. We humans tend to think that just because some High IQ individual works out something its has to be true. If we look a little deeper we might find that actually it is a load of crap.